DLTR, Dollar Tree

dltr oct 11 2011 dltr oct 11 s 2011

Dollar Tree is a remarkable success story, one that I certainly got completely wrong. This stock behaves in a perverse and inverse way to most others, the worse things get the better it does, it works sort of like food banks. The chart on the left is on an arithmetic and you can consequently see how the chart curves upwards at a sharper tangent as it goes vertical, where it is now. The chart on the right is semi-log, revealing a perfectly straight channel .

I have absolutely no idea what the count is! I would suggest that it also does not matter much, this is a sell as you hit the upper trend line (at $84, or so) or before that.

DLTR , Dollar Tree, wrong so far, but there is always tomorrow

dltr2010sep

Wrong on DLTR so far by a few dollars. The error was in the count. This has an extended 3d wave which often means that the first and fifth was will turn out to be almost equal (see  blue arrows). Should that be the case the stock is definitely a short at about $50 if not earlier.

The RSI and perhaps also the MACD are not confirming the new highs.

DLTR , Dollar Tree

dltr july3

dltr july 2010 2 dltr july 2010

A short? You be the judge. PE is actually not that bad, at under 12 but everything else suggests this one might be ready for a little pull-back. I love the name, having always been told that money does not grow on trees, but here it is , a real dollar tree. It , by the way, is totally out of synch with the markets overall, making new all time highs etc. etc, $37 is a reasonable short term target, by then we will know what the rest of the universe is doing.