This has taken a long time. The immediate low was on Feb. 9, now more than 4 months ago. The Dow has remained within the range set in the aftermath of the initial drop. That is not the case for the Nasdaq and/or the Russell 2000 both of which have achieved new highs. This diversity and “slow-motion” action is typical of major tops if that is what we have here.

Nothing in the action of the Dow is perfectly clear. The initial drop looks like 5 waves but certainly can also be viewed as a completed a-b-c correction down. The b-wave shown can likewise be viewed as either a single diagonal or a three-wave structure. Much would depend on where one assumes the top of a to be, as shown or one step earlier. The diagonal c wave fails to make a new post wave one high as is but not if one assumes the latter interpretation. With the TSX within 100 points or so of its high and now displaying a relatively clear five waves up, there is good reason to suspect that this is it.

Another possibility. This works just as well as the 1-2, 1-2 concept as either way we are moving into wave 3.

The pragmatic theory about triangles, to open this blog with a contradiction in terms, is that triangles occur in 4th waves in 5 wave sequences, just before the end in other words. They tell you that you are nearing the end of the upward (or downward) trend. The market at this time is pretty well 50/50 which is why you see these gyrations.

Triangles also occur in B-waves as in an A-B-C correction and/or as a first wave down also in an A-B-C structure. Here too the market is pretty well 50/50 and undecided un till it breaks. There are a few requirements that all triangles must meet which is pragmatically determined by simple observation. All legs must be 3s. Normally there are 5 legs within the triangle. The upper and lower trend lines of the triangle must have an opposite direction.

Depending what level of resolution you use you may get different results. This chart has hourly inputs. In Hi-Low charts the lows are equal at about 23350-ish.  Note that it is possible to draw both a 4th wave triangle and a B-wave triangle. Technically the 4th wave fails perhaps because the a leg may, repeat may, be 5 waves rather than 3. Moreover both trend lines – in black – have a negative slope another dubious factor. I might also add that this thing is getting long in the tooth.

As a B-wave there is nothing incorrect at all, so we have to consider the possibility that this is a B-wave triangle. If so a drop of 3000 to 5000 points is not unreasonable. This should resolve itself in the next week or so. Also a series of 1-2s is still possible.