Again the usual then, August 2015, and now charts;

The triangle gave it away and allowed us to predict the upside and the downside fairly accurately. Except that we anticipated a decent ($15 or so) bounce from about $55. We barely got half that as the stock persistently kept going south and now is approaching our ultimate target zone. Usually I draw an arrow for wave C equal as a vector to wave A just to get some idea what might happen. Invariable in the last few years that led to a much too bearish outlook as the stock would not drop at that speed or in that magnitude. So I did not draw that arrow but clearly I should have as we are getting very close to the target range.

Typically the stock should retrace to the 4th wave of previous degree, in this case either $40 or $35 (if there was a larger triangle in wave 4 of 3). The lower end of this range coincidentally also defines where there would be a Fibo.  61.8% retracement of the entire up move (about $34).

Already the dividend yield, and this will no doubt change someday, is about 8.4%. This company alone is responsible for 1/10th of all dividends paid in the UK. In the Netherlands it is the go to stock par excellence for widows and orphans. This , of course, does not mean that the stock cannot drop even further. It does mean that we should keep an eye on it to determine when this 5 wave C wave should come to an end. For the moment somewhere between , say, $39 and $36 fits the chart best;

Notice that the RSI and MACD are not (yet) in synch. If you have difficulty to read the charts, just click on them and move them around.

This Yahoo chart, which is a few days old, appears to be very accurate  and quite long. The two main possibilities for labelling this chart are that a. the first top is THE top – it actually is by all of $0.24 – from which we have have an A down, a B back up to roughly the starting level and we are now somewhere, halfway?, in C which should unfold in 5 waves. All this is a large “flat” shown in purple. and b. The top is the second top,that failed by $0.24 and from there we are doing an entire correction in the form of a zig-zag a-b-c. This should take the form of a 3-3-5 structure. All this is in blue. In both cases we should get a pretty solid bounce right about here, either as a wave 2 of C or as a wave b in an a-b-c.

RDS.B gained about $5 last week on bad profits but with that a cut of 6500 employees. Chevron and Exxon fared a lot worse. Profits were reduced beyond expectations and there were no mitigating factors. Neither of these two integrated big oil companies were as far down as RDS.B was to begin with.

Oil itself is , of course, at a low that is roughly at the same level as earlier in the year. It remains to be seen if this is a 5th wave, a b wave, or the start of a new leg down. Right now the only thing that we know for sure is that the large, integrated oils ultimately will go lower. In the case of RDS.B $40 is a minimum target.

We prefer the large “flat” interpretation but by comparison to XOM or CVX it is hard to conclude that one is clearly superior to the other.

So this should be it. A slight throw-over but otherwise perfect. Yield is close to 6.75%

We have two counts. In black a simple 5 wave sequence for wave 1. There are 1-2s and 4-5s in it but that is all At $56 the sequence would be complete. In red a first zig-zag A-B-C in which wave C is equal to A at $56. A rebound to perhaps as high as $74 would be next in both cases and then either wave 3 starts or a second zig-zag.

We have waited a long time for all this to develop and here we are, all that is left to do is buy at $56 plus a little.