Early April we commented that this stock probable would not trade beyond $45-$47 and that a tight stop should be used. Well it hasn’t and now that the parent is reducing its interest from 100 to 51% we would sell if not already done.
We have been bullish on this stock right from the lows (see previous blogs), with a potential target of, perhaps $50 or so. This rebound has the looks of an a-b-c X a-b-c, a so called double zig-zag. If so the stock probable will not trade much above $45/$47 and we would sell at those levels maintaining a tight stop in the mean time. From the lows this is about a 50% gain.
See also Aug. 23 and Sept 21 comments. Nothing much has changed since then but nevertheless I am inclined to favor the bullish possibilities at this juncture, however with the caveat that I stop out $2 below the purchase price!
The idea that we were just in a 4th wave and should make new lows is still a distinct possibility, but the action over the past month or two looks corrective ( counter-trend) which strongly suggest we go higher and if we do the $45 target (top of e in a triangle) should be attainable. Of course the b=wave in the triangle looks a lot like a 5-wave move which technically negates the existence of a triangle, but the behavior of the stock can still follow the script. The reward is OK but nothing to write home about so use a stop close to the purchase price! By the way, the idea of this being a 4th wave in a new uptrend is essentially negated by the size of this move over the past two months or so, and by the overlap.