St. Patrick’ s day is as good a day as any to review the TSX. Many banker types downtown and elsewhere pretend to be Irish on this day simple to have a good excuse to have one too many. For those that watched Yellen’ s complete presentation and Q&A yesterday, one too many might not be enough. Each time there is another reason why the Fed will not do what it promised to do the previous meeting and collectively we simple cannot get it through our heads that the Fed is not at all interested in either employment or inflation. It’s raison d’etre always was, and always will be, to help out the banking system, period.

So now that things are so bad that we cannot move forward with “normalizing” the funds rate, oil and gold shoot up which used to be very bad but is now very good. The TSX shoots up in sympathy despite some lingering doubts with regard to our erstwhile favorite stock, VRX. The banks, at least TD and RY have or are about to make new highs so where are we??

Short-term we are completing a wedge, today, to be precise. There is no more room! We have done 2000 points in an equal number of months, about as good as it gets. At this very point overlap might occur depending on whether or not you use intra-day or closing prices, essentially this should not go any higher (there is an exception but we will not go into that). We are above the 50% and just below the 62% retracement levels, close to the wave 4 of previous degree level and both the RSI and MACD are ready to turn.

As an aside, for those that care, I must point out that the bear market in Canada started very close to the date predicted by Martin Armstrong, that is the year 2015.75 or October 1, 2015. Apart from his predictions, the story of his involvement with the Republic Bank of NY and the Safra family of Monaco, is fascinating and very real to me.

The TSX is not alone at being at a critical or interesting point. The Dow Industrials as well as the Transports , among many others including light crude oil and gold, are all approaching or at a major trend line;

The usual then, Nov. 12 2015, and now charts;

Yes, I do love blowing my own horn. But then I ask, where else did you get a prediction of four thousand points down? So far at least, we are right on schedule. If correct, we are now in a third wave, that will become the so-called point of recognition. Most often that is some sort of mid-point so we still have a way to go!

Just for clarity, we expect a low below the “great recession” low, possible by a very healthy margin.

The usual the, Oct. 9, 2015, and now charts;

Just a quick update. On the left our view as of the beginning of October, Oct. the 9th to be precise. Since then we have dropped about 1000 points.  THAT IS NOTHING! We may now be at the start of wave 3 which could, repeat could, easily become  a 4 to 5000 point decline or more and that would still not be the end of it. It could happen rather slowly, or very rapidly and perhaps even not at all. Time will tell. Below is a possible big picture;

An example of a stock that has gone down this road a little further would be BTU or BHP which is shown below;

Billiton is, of course in the commodities biz, but then so is Canada. The best way not to play this if you are a lender, is to grow your business like crazy at this time , preferable using agents that care less about your continuity. A 10 mln loan may only be valued at 2 mln once this is over.

This week, in case you missed it, everything shot up in tandem presumable as a result of the Fed. not doing anything and even opening the door to never doing anything. Oil shot up 9% (see our blog), the Can. Dollar had a great week and everything else that was down between 30 t0 80% over the past year had a great day. Will it last? As always we have no idea but we do take our cue from the patterns, in this case the TSX and Schlumberger as a, random, proxy for the oil companies. There are very clear a-b-c’s, they are corrective and that does not bode well. Obviously that could change but for now we prefer the bear side. The TSX did the usual 1000 points, twice actually and the second time in little more than a week. That should do it give or take one little push after thanksgiving.

There are many others that follow this general pattern. Halliburton, HAL, is another excellent example.