FX and logic do not go together all that well, which may explain why a good number of the participants used to be of English extraction and, more often than not, from the wrong side of the proverbial track. Logic, intelligence and that sort of stuff just does not enter the picture. Technical considerations, on the other hand, are basically the only workable tools and do, in fact have a reasonable reliability.
Looking at the above chart 116 or so would be , if nothing else, an interesting point to keep an eye on. When everybody knew that the US$ was going straight down, it went equally fast the other way. Perhaps now that everyone knows that the Euro is on a path to extinction it too may surprise us all by going the other way.