IVN, Ivanhoe

Just for completeness it may be constructive to add IVN to our analysis of TCK.B. This has been another favorite stock that has done quite well. It operates (not yet) from the barren steppes of Mongolia and is , supposedly , the largest single copper deposit in the world; moreover it is, arguable, within China. There could not be a more representative stock than this one to  signal where this market might go. Here is the chart (see also previous blogs);

ivn 2011 2 ivn 2011 1

Remember, you can click on the charts to enlarge them and then you can move them to make comparisons easier.

From the big chart we assume that the on Nov. 21, 2008 was the end of an a-triangle b-c correction and that from there a new bull market began, or, alternatively a 5th wave which would then have to subdivide in 5 sub-waves.

Looking at the short-term chart 5-waves can be counted ( in blue). Waves 1 through 3 travel $15,74 from $2,06 to $17,80. A similar move for wave 5 from the of 4 , a very common relationship, would have gotten the stock  to $29,17. In reality the stock overshoots by a little an reaches $30,28 on the 7th of Dec. 2010. This up-move can also be counted as a very large 3 wave B-wave, but that does not look that compelling. Either way the stock should now drop back to $13,43, the low of May 20th, 2010. It has already gone down $8 in a first, or a wave, and should very soon go down further in a 3d or c wave. If correct this certainly underscores the need for selling TCK.B very soon if not now.