RBC’s Focus List, the “creme de la creme”.

For years this has been the flag-ship product of RBC’s  research, methodology, and acumen in investing. For years it had been hypothetical as there was no real product that would properly gauge it’s success, even so it was always well published  ( in “Strategy” ) how well this thing  theoretically behaved compared to other, presumable less-advanced, approaches. Then came the deal with First Trust and talking became doing. To be fair the performance was extraordinary for a long time – some part of which was no doubt self-fulfilling, after all , 1400 brokers , to some extent or another ,  take their cue from the focus list never mind a multitude of other applications – but things have changed in the last few years and may continue to change in the next few. Like all full-service investment dealers, RBC DS has always had an uneasy relationship with “technical analysis” and, with a few notable exceptions , such as “Trend & Cycle” which is almost unreadable for anybody other than the selected few allowed in the temple, they rely primarily on a “value” approach  sprinkled with a touch of momentum , combined with diversification. In this market that is like throwing a lifeline overboard and using the wind as a compass. Hera are the stats;

Focus list, fund 

The MER is about 2.2% if held outside a wrap account, and inside you pay that anyway but through fees. As an aside, notice that the firm has earned more than you did for the last 5 years, with a lot less risk , and you thought that yacht pictured in the pamphlet was yours!

Looking into the future here is the chart with the EW most probable count.

focus list 2

We have seen this one before, 5 down, A – megaphone B- C , for B up. C is not yet equal to A but getting close. At $19.23 the value of this fund is just shy of a perfect 61.8% retracement at $19,61. Next could be wave C or 3 down and the fund could, once again, lose about 50% of its value. Time will tell.