SAP, Saputo

sap big 2 sap big1

Sometimes EW is very ambiguous and at other times it presents itself as on a silver platter. The chart on the left has 5 waves up, as clear as a bell, but if you extend the time frame (as far as I can with Bigcharts), things are less definitive. Waves 2 and 4 (in purple in the left chart) are both zig-zags which is not impossible but is very unlikely to be correct. A little tinkering gives us the count on the right, here both waves 4 are zig-zags but they are of different degrees so the guideline is not violated. So much for EW niceties, either way this thing seems to be topping and is most certainly trading well above its average over many years (roughly purple line on the right). A drop back to $25 or $ 20 is entirely realistic. Again when wondering “how high is high”, the answer is simple; this is high.

A more detailed look ore or less confirms that opinion. Here is the short-term chart;

sap 3

At first blush this looks a lot like a B-wave, except that it has gone beyond what one would normally expect. B-wave (green) or 5th wave (black) matters very little,at least for the next big move. Notice that both and A in the B-wave are equal plus a little. in a 5th wave this would make the 5th equal to 1 and 3 combined, also very common. Both RSI and MACD are dropping. Time to apply “by low , sell high”.