OCX , Onex Corp.

ocx june 2011l ocx june 2011

Onex Corp is variously described as a financial institution, a hedge fund or simple a collection of unrelated companies that are owned for no other purpose than to be sold at a higher price. As always these companies are dependent on the cost of financing, interest rates, and the valuations put on the assets held. Both have worked in OCX’s favour over the last two or so years.  The stock is close to double topping to the levels before the great debacle, at about $40.

Two possibilities exist. The stock completed a 5 wave bull market, had its correction , and is now in an entirely new bull market. Or, only wave A of a more complex A-B-C was completed at the lows and , from there, we are in the B-wave which is pretty well complete; next is C down.

The first of the two possibilities is , in my opinion , very unlikely. Valuations in 2007 were pretty lofty and now that we are back to those levels it seems unreasonable to expect much more. Interest rates too can hardly go much lower. Ergo the A-B-C scenario wins hands down from which it follows that this stock is a sell.

RIM

rim june 2011

mrvl june 2011

RIM was never a favorite, briefly it looked like a spread trade against Apple might work well but that one almost immediately went sour despite a very nice climb in RIM stock.

Revisiting the stock it is pretty hard to be too optimistic. On patterns alone the overlapping behaviour for the past two years suggest a diagonal is in the making. A good example  is provided by Marvell Technologies (see earlier blog). If it does do this the target could easily be as low as $25. But , on the positive side, the stock should shoot up to about $90 immediately thereafter.

WTIC West Texas Oil

wtic may31 2011

Oil has not done much during the past month of May. Looks like a consolidation phase that normally breaks out in the same direction as it was entered, in this case down. A “logical” target , as a minimum, would be about $86 from where the most recent climb started. Also that would represent a pull-back of about 38% of the entire rise from the low thirties level. It may take another week or more to complete the consolidation phase.

CCO

 

cca may31 2011

Yesterday’s announcement by Germany that it will discontinue nuclear power generation some 15 years earlier than previously thought, brought the stock down by about a dollar and it is possible that a diagonal 9 as shown) could form. However, it is not clear how they will pull this off and some cynics conclude that it is little more than posturing to get the Greens on side on another Greek support proposal. I do not think a diagonal will form, but it could.