Hitting the lower channel line, both the parallel channel line and one that connects the low. This should be a buying opportunity if only for a trade. Both the RSI and the MACD would suggest that a turnaround is just around the corner.
Year: 2011
SLF again and MFC
Here it is in a little more detail. Today’s low registered at $ 20.96 If there was a triangle wave 5 already has the required 5 wave subdivisions even if they are hard to recognize. If there never was a triangle, a wave 4 and 5 is still required to finish the job. A move to, say $23 followed by a drop to a new low would do the trick. The 5th wave is already almost equal to wave 1 and time wise we are pretty close to the apex (if that applies). The best you can hope for is about $20.25 and it should happen within two weeks. Little point in waiting!
Unless you look at Manulife which is either making a very complex and incomplete wave 4, or simple just another 4 and 5;
If it does that it will likely get to the all time low of $9
SLF, Sunlife Financial
Sept. 22nd , 2011 we had a tentative target for Sunlife around $ 22. Here is that chart and today’s.
We have gone a little further than $22, and have done so in a decidedly unclear way. Nevertheless the picture overall suggests a 5-wave movement down to the lower channel trend line at just under $22 is complete. The stock is now earning almost 7% and trades at a p/e of about 7. The end of wave 3 could be as shown, possible making wave 4 a rather awkward triangle; or wave 3 could end at the lowest point in the middle of the channel. Waves 5 and 1 are about equal, a common event. A rebound of about $5 to around $26 is now highly probable. That would even be the case if we have only finished wave 3, as wave 4 would also require a $5 rebound.
Conceivable this stock could require another C leg up to complete an A-B-C countertrend correction (the B is the a-b-c shown). This is a little at odds with the market overall and , more specifically, the headwinds that insurance companies are experiencing in this low interest, low investment returns environment.
RL, Polo Ralph Lauren Corp.
Some luxury goods sell more at a higher price. They are called Veblen goods after one Thorstein Veblen who first pioneered this perverse phenomenon of conspicuous consumption and status-seeking. Incidentally stocks arguable belong to this category as well. If you recently tried to get a team of polo players together for a Saturday afternoon game, you will know what I am getting at. Here are the charts:
From big to small. The big picture is telling, there is no overlap of waves 4 and 2, they almost touch at about $30. Wave 4 is a text-book a-b-c, where the c = a. Wave 5 has a “throw-over” , that is it moves beyond the upper channel trend-line.
Mid-term the stock channels well, even if the count is not completely clear. It could have a series of 1-2’s at the start and hence should have a similar series of 4-5’s at the end. Even without that it is relatively easy to construct a 5-wave sequence up.
The short-term chart is the most ambiguous. The best count would be a wave 4 expanding triangle (a.k.a a megaphone), followed by said 4-5’s. Alternatively a wedge is forming that would allow for one more minor 5th wave that should itself unfold as a 3-wave structure. This could , repeat could, take the stock to about $170.
Either way the next big move is down to about $105 (4th wave of previous degree or base of wedge). After that possibly to wave 4 of the entire thing (at $30). It might get increasingly difficult to get that game going as more and more players lose their shirt. This is definitely a short, either now or at $170 if you want to play it safe.