Year: 2011

FSLR, First Solar.

Hamilton

fslr sept 2011

Two and a half moths ago it looked like a triangle was forming. This may in fact be what has happened except that the e-wave is a bit anemic. In any case the advise was to stop out at $100 if not sold on the e-wave. Now that we are outside the triangle it looks like the original target of around $50 may be a little too optimistic. Over supply in solar panels is running at very high levels, government support programmes for things green are frustrated every where and the panels have become commodities. Much lower prices appear inevitable.

NVDA, Nvidia a reminder

Hamilton

nvda jul 2011 nvda sept 2011 2

On the left the chart from june. It was then expected that the stock would trade to the trend line connecting the lows.I had not looked at it for a while but certainly came close $11.75. The question now is will it still do that or is it already in the next up leg. Not sure but should it get to , say, $11 now then it is definitely a buy for $5 to $10 up.

FVI, Fortuna Silver

Hamilton

fvi sept 2011

Fortuna has spent the better part of this year rotating around, roughly $5.50. This behavior could indicate that a triangle formed, either from the beginning of the year (purple) or from  April. I prefer the latter as the thrust would still fit inside the established channel. The target would be a little under $8 at around the time of the apex (about 2 months from now). An alternative that is perhaps the best count is that there are no triangles whatsoever and that the stock is forming a wave to or B just under the level of the previous top. This fits best with the action of gold itself and that of the Swiss Franc that was down by a hefty 8.5% today, an unheard of large move. Whatever the count this stock should trade at $4/$3.50 in the very near future, perhaps lower. A sell.

DAX and Siemens

Hamilton

dax sept 2011 si sept 2011

One would expect the Dax and Siemens to be dancing to the same tune, more or less. There are slight differences but in the main they go up and down at about the same time and pause at around the same time. Stylized in the two charts above, both clearly made A-B-C corrections, retracing similar proportions of their losses into March 2009.

The Dax needs to drop to about 5120 to retrace 62% of the rally, for Siemens the number is about $81 . Both have a count that would suggest that wave 3 is about to complete. A month of sideways movement could then be expected  for wave 4, and then 5 down should take both the Dax and Siemens to those targets which also correspond, roughly, to the level of the B-wave. In detail;

dax sept 2011 d si sep 2011 d

All of this is just wave 1 down!!!