Year: 2011

HPQ Hewlett Packard, update

Hamilton

hpq aug 19 2011

Yesterday HP traded in a wild $7 range. The take-over of a British software company was leaked a little early so the earnings were released a little early as well and the stock was halted for a little while. All things that just happen at critical points. Using as fine a pencil as I can , I have updated the chart from a few days ago. It shows that $27 is pretty well the sweet spot. The stock should not trade below $26 as that would negate the count ( overlap).

Nobody seems to understand what the company is up to. Some optimist are reminded of IBM some 10+ years ago when they got out of PC’s. Others believe the company lacks vision and is simple meandering to its ultimate demise. But, it is still the largest computer company and it trades at a P/E now below 7 (which makes you wonder why they are buying a company at a P/E of 30). Anyway this one is a buy at $27 with a stop at $26

P.S I see that the stock is down >$5 in after hours so this suggestion is not operative any more. In a manner of speaking you are stopped out before the fact. We will look at it again in a few days.

WTIC , West Texas

Hamilton

wtic aug 19 2011

Oil, West Texas, has bee a good guide for the entire oil sector,together with Royal Dutch and a few others. As with the stock markets we are rapidly approaching critical technical levels. At $6 a day we may be within a day or two of the common target, the wave B level of this near perfect A-B-C. Also the RSI is at levels not seen for two or more years.

Suncor , SU, might actually be a buy at around $29 for a trade. It is obviously in the same position as the stuff itself, that is approaching the B-wave level. A bounce of $5 to $10 from there is not out of the question. Use a stop-loss as the count is not at all clear on SU;

su aug 19 2011 rds.a aug 19 2011

If Royal Dutch is a guide, we are nowhere near the bottom as it would need to drop to $50 to be in the same position as SU. Both are the largest oil concerns in their respective home countries, Canada and Holland but Royal Dutch is a lot bigger and more integrated making it less responsive to immediate changes in the price of crude. Click on the charts to enlarge.

EK

Hamilton

EK Aug 19 2011

Yesterday this was just about the only stock moving up. If it manages $3.60 over the next few days I would sell. A 60% gain in a few weeks is good enough. For the more speculative types you may wish to stick around, apparently the story is catching on so ultimately a much higher price is certainly possible.

DAX , MIB Milan

Hamilton

DAX aug 19 2007

The DAX  moved up about 4000 from the lows, at today’s lows of 5345 we are very close to having given back 61.8% of that (another 150 points). Furthermore , stylized we are at the level of the B-wave and also have completed 5-wave move down from 7500, the July high. From the April high of 7600 that is not yet the case. However given the position of the RSI and MACD chances are that a solid rally will be the next big move. The MIB, Milan is also very close to a critical point having given back almost all of the gains over the last 2+ years.

mib aug 19 2011

The wave count here more closely resembles a 5-wave move for the entire drop from February , one more bad day and you are there.

Longer term we should go lower but the intervening rally could be rather violent.