MS, Morgan Stanley update

ms jan 2012

We have followed this stock actively. It has taken 3 1/2 months for this particular pattern to run its course. The top of c is at $17.50 and the stock made a high of $16.94 today. Clearly there is little room to the upside if this scenario is correct.

L , Loews Corp.

l 2012l 2012 s

Loews Corp. has been trading around $37 now for about 3 months, or , if you take a broader view, 6 months. The action has the look of a triangle, perhaps not a perfect one but a triangle nevertheless. It is entirely possible that we are presently still in wave c and not in e as shown in the chart, but that does not rhyme well with many other triangles that can be observed. So, assuming this is correct, we should be going down soon. A break of $36.5 will be needed to add confidence to this outlook.

BLL, Ball Corporation

bll 2012 lbll 2012 s

I had the privilege a few moons ago to stay in Muncie , Indiana for the purpose of building a house with Habitat. Muncie is a university town right in the middle of the redneck USA. I was there during the July 4th celebrations and that way you got a chance to learn what America is all about, good and bad. Anyway it is here that this company chose to build it’s HQ. Very suitable considering they make canning jars among other things. As close as you can get to motherhood and apple pie.

The stock chart is a perfect EW example even if I must confess not “seeing” the 5 waves in 5 all that clearly. The channel line is as clear as a bell   and so is the first wave down followed by an a-b-c correction or rebound. It now has gone as far as it must and could stop any moment. Then wave 3 down should start. Ultimately the stock should see a new low.

YUM, Yum! Brands Inc.

yum 2012

This one is in the restaurant business. I have never been in one but judging by the name, it should be nice and the food yummie. I think it is a sell. Here is why; At the end of wave 3 the stock was worth roughly $40, assuming it started at the hypothetical zero level, waves 1 and 3 together added $40. Wave 5 is presently about to do the same, say at $62. This is a frequently recurring relationship. Next we are hitting the upper trend-line of a 7 or more year channel. 62 is ,of course a very nice Fibo number. Last but not least, with a p/e above 23 this one better keep growing at a handsome clip or something will give. I wish I owned it, and if I did I would sell at $61