CPG, Crescent Point Energy update

Then (Febr. 29 2011) and now.

CPG feb 29 2012cpg jul 2012

So the suggestion on Febr. 29th was to sell this one right away even if it could still go a little higher. It did so 2 days later on the next Monday (it is a leap year!) and dropped to $35.62 , less than a dollar short of the indicated target and more than 20% down.

Where does it go from here? My guess is down once the (red) a-b-c is done, which could still take the stock to, perhaps, $43. But, and this is a big but, there is also potentially a much larger A-B-C (in black) which could take the stock back above $47. This scenario does not jive with the outlook on , but nevertheless it remains a possibility. Stay on the side.