TSO, Tesoro update

Some of the best results are obtained when you forget about a stock. It takes away the nervous finger on the trigger stuff, and gives you tons of patients that you normally do not have. This , by the way, is a side-product of a stop-loss as it allows you to forget.

Last time we commented on Tesoro was in Febr. of 2010. I was familiar with the company from earlier experiences as a credit officer; my bank lent it a lot of money a long time ago.  Here are the then and now;

tso feb 2010tso sept 2012

4 months after suggesting $10.50 as an ideal entry point (based on Fibo relationships), the  stock actually makes a low of $10.37, hits the first target of $20 and keeps going as indicated in the picture to a level of just under $30. That could have done the trick for all we knew so we would have exited the position. Now, with hindsight, it is clear that that was only one half of the correction! Here we are at a little over $40. If you still hold it , it is now definitely a sell, see below.

tso b sept 2012

Not everyone will necessarily agree with the A-B-C count right into the 62% retracement level. After all it also counts nicely as a 5-wave impulse wave up in a new bull market. At this point it really does not matter as first waves are typically retraced rather deeply and certainly to the bottom of the 4th of previous degree, in this case well below $20. A sell either way! No wonder they say that ignorance is bliss.