TLM, Talisman update

See previous blogs, last we recommended stepping aside once the stock reached $15. After that it did dip down again to a target of $10 but did not make it to the “ideal” target of $8 having been stopped by the line connecting all lows. Here are today’ charts;

tlm oct 13 2012tlm oct 13 2012 s

EW allows for various interpretations at this time. On balance it would seem that the stock will go up after this latest dip (wave 2?) is complete at between $12 and $11 (60%), then another leg up (wave 3 or wave c) should start that could easily take the stock to $17 or higher. On the downside one has to keep in mind that the stock never made it to the “ideal”target of $8, so it could still do that. A stop at around $11 right now seems appropriate. The RSI and MACD favour higher levels, oil itself perhaps not but there seems to be very little correlation between this stock and the stuff itself. The stock itself has a large idiosyncratic or stock specific component and therefore does not listen to the same drummer.

In the alternate count the stock could rise significantly in the B wave and then more or less collapse. Initially that should still be positive.  See also previous blogs.