On July 26,2011 we put out the following chart of Newmont;
You can find this chart in a earlier blog on NEM (under Stock index). Below is the same chart as of yesterday;
The high was around $73 and we are at $45 down about $28 or almost 40%. The p/e is at 47x according to Bigcharts. The stock is at levels that it first reached 8 years ago. At this time we have no reason to change the outlook.
As almost always after a wave 5 from a triangle the index should return to approximately the highest point of that triangle. That would allow another 60 points or so to the upside (and of course upsides have lately much further than one would normally expect), and then the downside should resume.
PS the 5th wave is assumed to have “failed”, that is it did not go far enough. This is a little problematic.
Starbucks has a dividend yield of 0.68% and trades at a P/E of 36. Today it hit a high of $62 which caught our attention. It reported earnings that appear to be a tad disappointing at least as far as European sales were concerned and the stock is down a few dollars in after hours trading. Here is the chart with a count that is somewhat questionable considering a slight overlap, but we present it anyway;
Back in April of 2009, after the stock had hit a low around $5/$8 and had already climbed to a bout $11 or so we recommended the stock as a buy but added that we had no idea why anybody would do so. Now that the stock is some $50 higher, not only do we not understand why one would buy it but we would definitely recommend selling it. The problem, of course, is that with interest rates at almost zero ANY asset that has a return has a theoretical infinite value. This is the free (you do not need to work for it) prosperity model followed by Bernanke et al. Even so the Fibo # of 61.8 may just have more weight this time around.
AAPL dropped almost $100 over the past two months and did so in a near perfect a-b-c. In itself this has no predictive value as the stock could either shoot straight up down depending on the reported earnings. Again they were pretty stellar and the stock had already reached $601 in after hours trading. The question now is whether or not this a-b-c is all of the correction, or just part of a more complex correction that still has some ways to go. In any event chances of a new high in the future have improved considerable. How much higher remains to be seen.
Given the performance, 6 fold in two years and virtually vertical the past 6 months, still must make a prudent investor wonder if it is smart sticking around much longer.