Year: 2012

SNC Lavalin update

Hamilton

snc feb 28 2012

See previous blogs! We were wrong about wave 2 not going above $52, it did but at least we got the first target just about dead on at $40 or so. The move down is not entirely clear, it could be 5 waves but there is some overlap which should not be there. However the a-b-c back up, even if surprisingly strong is pretty clear. Today we are doing the 3rd of 3 (or alternatively a second a-b-c down). The crime today seems to be accounting irregularities, cozy relations with a former political friend and a lot of “baksheesh” that is pretty rampant as soon as you get below the Rhine, but that can be found here too as, for instance, at that  Canadian ex-crown corporations like Orange.

These guys are building jails in Lybia, something that is presently in high demand with our present government that would like to see us follow the US example by having the largest percentage of the population behind bars. That is not going to stop this stock from reaching our ultimate target of below $26.

Richie Brothers, the auctioneers (RBA) have a similar chart except that wave 2 peaks at a more modest 60% or so retracement level (see previous blogs).

SHLD update

Hamilton

shld feb 26 2012

As we pointed out , the b wave here was a little bit at the low end of the scale but otherwise this was a screaming buy and certainly violent, almost a double in a month. This one should go higher to about $90+ but we would prefer to play it safe and exit at about $78 or so.

LNG, Cheniere Energy

Hamilton

The Blackstone guys are buying 111 mln. subordinated shares at $18, which adds up to about 2 bln. equal to the company’s capitalization. This is seed money for an export terminal costing about $10 bln. to, you guessed it, export L (liquid) N(natural) G (gas), from the US that is presently not enjoying an abundance of the stuff to other parts of the world. Also there were some rumblings about using the fuel in existing internal combustion engines, as in diesel locomotives and normal cars, something that is pretty common in Europe. Here is the chart;

lng feb 2012

By the way, this stock , once upon a time, was worth more than $45. Two counts are possible. In blue, 5 waves up to a top of $13, then an A down and a (very nice) B up, C to fallow. In red, we are presently in the 5th wave up that is clearly a three wave affaire and consequently would have to be part of an “expanding diagonal triangle”. This would also be required to explain the overlap between 2 and 4, normally a no no. It does not matter which count is correct as in both cases the stock should drop back to about $3. We would sell at $18 or even lower (as in right now).

Dell update

Hamilton

dell feb 2012Dell s feb 2012

Back in August of 2009 (see previous blog) we recommended the purchase of Dell with a target well into the twenties. Today we would suggest selling the stock now and taking a 40%+ gain over roughly 18 months. The reason, in simple terms, is that the stock had a “thrust” up from a pattern that looks suspiciously like a triangle, moreover the thrust is pretty well equal to the mouth of the triangle and the top is reached perpendicularly above the apex. What more can you ask for. Thrusts, which are 5th or c waves are, almost without exception retraced right down to the lowest point of the triangle, about $13.50, so why stick around?