Year: 2012

MOS, Mosaic

Hamilton

MOS Jan 2012

We commented on this stock only once before, in early 2010 when the stock was around $70. At that time it had done two almost equal legs up from the lows which could have been the end of the correction. In hindsight the stock did go higher but not after first losing $30 or about 40% of its value.

Early this year the same thing occurred at around $90. As the retracement was now about 50% the chance of the correction coming to an end was far greater. Since then it has lost 1/2 of its value. The p/e is around 8, so very modest. Today they report a drop in income of 39% which would put the p/e around 13 or so, above the market average. Expect the stock to go down at least to the $39 level (B level in B-wave) and after that to new lows.

This company is in phosphates more than other fertilizers  but the message is clear also for Agrium and Potash.

SI, Siemens and ABB, Asea Brown Boveri (and DAX)

Hamilton

SI jan 2012abb jan 2012

Siemens is the stock we take more seriously as a proxy for the German market, ABB is , after all Swiss/Swedish and not German but the distinction hardly matters here. In fact one could add SNC Lavalin to this duo and strengthen  the case that we are , most probably , in a wave 4 position. A more detailed look at SI would suggest that we might be in a triangle of sorts;

Si d 2012

All along our minimum target to the downside has been for $81 for the first down-leg. It is taking a very long time but the simple fact that the stock has only regained about $15 from the lows, after dropping about $60 is very promising for this outlook. The best EW count for SI would be that we are in a wave 4 triangle . An alternatives that readily presents itself is that we are in wave 2 of 5 of the first down-leg or wave 2 of 3. In that situation we should not trade above $110 before we go down a lot further. No bullish count suggests itself at this time. Applied to the DAX index itself, the equivalent logic would dictate that the DAX should stay below approximately 6400.

CMG, Chipotli Mexican Grill

Hamilton

cmg

See previous blogs on this one. At one point it looked like a very good sell (at around $340), but then it proceeded to do nothing for 5 months. That is it tops three times at about $350. Then as now, the stock is trading at a p/e of 53 and yields 1.05% A sell??

RY, Royal Bank

Hamilton

RY 2012

The first 4th wave of previous degree is at $50, the next one at $52 and equality between the two corrective legs in this bounce  occurs at a little under $54. We are out already preferring to watch this exuberance from the sidelines, but would definitely get out at $54 if we were not already. One can only wonder who the sellers were at $44 and wonder even more knowing that they may well be the same persons that are now buying.