WFT, West Fraser Timber update

We thought it was game over when this stock first hit the $62.50 high, not so even though it did, initially, drop about $10. Here we are at $63.58, a year and a half later and still going strong. The p/e is now around 40 and the yield is under 1%. Here are the charts;

wft nov 2012 1wft nov 2012 2

Identical charts except that one is a little more compressed. There are no 5 waves up structures anywhere in this chart, at least not without overlap. This is the signature of an expanding diagonal, which is a wedge that gets wider as it goes through time rather than narrower. The latest storm in the US may just have given it that extra little push and the large swings are no doubt attributable to the rapidly changing opinions with regard to the housing market and where that is in the supposed turnaround. Save for a few dollars to the upside to reach the trend line this is a sell. Of 8 analysts that follow the stock, all have buys and 2 even strong buys. Nobody else is recommending a sell.

SCCO, Southern Copper Corp. ( Formerly PCU )

scco nov 2012

This one also took its time to rebound, half a year more than we expected but soon, very soon the downwards move should resume.                                                                                         

HCG, Home

hcg b nov 3 3012hcg nov 3 s 2012

Home Capital Group, an excellent company growing like gangbusters, very profitable and trading at a p/e of about 8%. What is there not to like? The Chart, and this may also apply for similar financial institutions that do not have a chart, simple because they do not operate as a shareholder company.

Looking at the big chart it was either 5 waves up into the high of $60, or it was a B-wave that got the stock up there. Either way the next big move should be to the downside, at least to the trend line at around $25 (see previous blogs). Looking at the more detailed chart a clear 5 waves down occurred mostly in 2011, to be followed by an a-b-c wave 2 that has now lasted 13 months and may not yet be over. The next big move should start soon and take the stock below $41 right away. The important thing to remember is that there is no reason for such a decline. During the great recession this stock lost about 60% of its value for no reason. If it repeats that feat it will drop to about $24 also for no reason, which is in itself a good reason to step aside.

ABX , update

abx nov 2 2012

This one followed our script nicely, exceeding our upwards target by just a few dollars but already it is back in the doghouse. Assuming we are in a downward c wave we should get a clear 5 wave subdivision. The count shown provides that. If correct $24 would be a realistic target for starters.