Year: 2012

DJIA, update

Hamilton

djia nov 2 2012 bdjia nov 2 s 2012

If you predict, do it often, your chances of success increase. So here is that wedge again, first mentioned a few months ago. So far, and this is typical for this market, the wedge has not been confirmed or negated. To stay intact the market should not trade above 13300, essentially where it is right now. To do so the employment number coming out in an hour and a half probable has to be bad, or at the very least disappointing. Looking at the minor waves we should have a 4th in the making right here and it should be either a flat or a triangle. After that wave 5 down should break the trend-line along the bottom of the wedge at about 13000. If not it is back to the drawing board.

Copper.

Hamilton

copper b oct 2012copper m oct 2012

Somewhere in 2002 copper probable started a new bull leg, pretty much the way gold did from 2001. The exact wave count from there is not perfectly clear but the best fit would be 5 up into the highs of 2008 followed by an A for the great recession drop and then a B (to moderately higher highs) in the rebound. This is , of course, an industrial commodity used just about every where. Demand from China is reportedly a significant factor, particularly when it is stockpiled over and above the immediate needs. Should this demand weaken further the price, which like all commodities , is determined in the margin, could drop quite a bit further. Note that even with the recent drop we are still something like 3x the price for the first 15 years of the chart. In detail things look like this;

copper s oct 2012

For the past year the price has triangulated as the world is debating the hard or soft landing question for China. We have no answer to that but simple observe that the pattern, so far at least, is that of a triangle. As stated so many times before these occur only in wave 4 or B positions. Given the apparent overlap with wave 2 (which might not be the case) we would prefer the wave B alternative but for the immediate future it does not matter. If the triangle continues it should form an e wave next and then drop to , at least 2.75 which, by the way, is the level of the b in the B, a normal point. Should all this transpire you do not want to stay in copper stocks but for the moment there is no rush. FCX, Freeport,BHP and many others have very similar charts.  Below is a chart that could support a 5 wave count;

copper oct 2012 lme

TSX

Hamilton

TSX oct 29 2012

It has been raining continuously but apparently, with New York closed, our TSX is anything but liquid. In the last 5-10 minutes of trading the entire day’s progress was retraced. Some blame MOC (Market on Close) orders but that seems a little too one sided. Perhaps, we too, have a plunge protection team. Whatever but one thing is clear this market can be manipulated.

CUA.V, last update.

Hamilton

Then (April 2011) and now, as usual;

CUA.V apr 2012cua.v oct 29 2012

The president of this company resigned three days ago. In our first blog we mentioned that the company was entering the “dig or die” phase simple because all the options held by management started to drop below the water line. In Germany, where this stock also trades, some websites are expressing alarm and disgust ;

CuOro Res — Minen-Rakete? Oder was ist da los?

 

Which freely translated would say, Mine rocket? Or what the h…. is going on. Interestingly the company’s own website has all the news up to date and offers this in English and German. Unfortunately the translator has been on vacation since June. Apparently, when it comes to investing, some are more equal than others.

At 35 cents this may well be a buy, C=A as a vector and the RSI and MACD are respectively at an extreme or not confirming.  But then there is this phrase that says that fish rot from the head down. We will pass.