Spot the differences. On the left the NYSE index and on the right Autodesk, a software company. The difference on these two charts is minor but after today the ADSK will have dropped about 24% which is compatible with the start of wave 3 of C.
As always you can click on them to enlarge and then you can move them around for a better comparison.
We have tried this one before, only to get stopped out the same day. Things are not looking any better today. The counts in these charts are debatable but we assume, like all other tech. stocks HP had it’s top in 2000. From that point on one would expect an a-b-c correction that normally takes the stock down to the 4th wave of previous degree or 50/62 %. That had already been done in 2003. Given the 5-waves up from there we toyed with the idea that the stock might be in a whole new bull market, which it wasn’t. Now it looks like the stock has had 5 waves down from the post great recession high of $55. However this is highly unlikely as waves 2 and 4 would be identical in structure; not impossible but unlikely. Therefore we give preference to the idea that we are only just about to complete wave 3 and still have 4 and 5 to go. Whatever the count we would wait for a reading closer to $10 before looking at the long side.
Sony, that other tech. wunder child, might be a better bet at $10+. It could have completed the sequence and it comes from a much higher level. The drop is more than 92%.
The usual then and now. Please see the blog as well. Target under either a bear or bull case was $32.50 minimum from the price then of $27.70. We closed at $33.79 after a high above $34. That is getting close to 21%. The RSI is already in overbought territory but we may still go a little higher as trend line resistance is at about $36. All we need is a little more talk of quantitative easing. Up to you (as always).
We recommended this as a buy at $3.79 despite our target of $3.50 to the downside. Patience is everything. The upside was then expected to reach about $5.30, a 60% retracement. That continues to be more or less valid even if we would prefer to get out just a little earlier, a bit above $5. That equates to a 31% gain in about 4 months. We would take that rather than hope silver may propel this stock higher. You could be looking at a much larger a-b-c in which the a is from $7.50 to $3, the b from $3 to $5+ and c to follow to close to zero.