NYA, NYSE update. THIS IS IT (for now). and FTSE

nya may 27 2015NYA june 21 2015

The usual then, May 27th, and now charts of the NYSE. This is one of the many “wedges that we identified over the past few months. Unlike the Nasdaq, which still has the possibility of going slightly higher, this wedge is so clean, tidy and perfect that we would be very surprised if the top was not already in. We remain open to the notion that the entire structure from the October low is a wedge. Alternatively it is not impossible to assume a large triangle followed by a wedge. In both cases the structure is complete.

    Furthermore it is not that hard to see an initial 5 wave leg down followed by an a-b-c corrective wave 2. I cannot get charts in sufficient detail to properly make that determination with a lot of confidence. Nevertheless it does not require a leap of faith and in the overall context of this index it is reasonable to conclude, at least for the NYSE, that the bear market started on the 21 of May 2015 at 11254.87. The RSI and MACD appear to be in agreement.

There are other wedges like this that are equally clear. The FTSE is another index that is identical to this one but has already come down much faster. Both traded just a few days ago at levels they were at more than a year ago! The FTSE actually two years ago.

FTSE june 21 2015

NYA again

nya may 27 2015

These silly 100 to 200 point days take their toll. But no matter how you slice and dice this wedge it is coming to an end. We did not break the lower support line so there still is a possibility for one more, marginally higher high but after that it should be game over. There simple is no more room.

NYA, New York update

Then, 23d of April 2015, and now charts as usual;

NYA apr 23 2015nya may 22 2015

Almost a month has gone by and as of this morning this index managed to gain all of 10 points or so. There is still some ambiguity as to the exact count but this is becoming less important as soon there simple will not be any room left to manoeuver. There is absolutely no question that this is a wedge.

NYA (NYSE) and RUT (Russell 2000)

NYA apr 23 2015RUT apr 23 2015

They come in all sorts of shapes but all are wedges. The structure is a 3-3-3-3-3, that is three legs up and two intervening legs down. Pretty simple but also very elusive as these things can go on for longer than you think. In fact, on the Russell we thought it was over about a month ago, where the little black arrow is. It was not. But fortunately the space between the lines is finite so we can now say that the RUT cannot continue for more than one month!

The other broad index, the NYSE has the same pattern but a little less sharp. If you look closely you can see that as recently as yesterday this index was trading at the same level as it did 10 months ago! Not much to show after all the efforts by nearly all the World’s central bankers to spike the punchbowl. In fact you cannot help wonder why they do not hire this British guy to spoof the e-mini S&P contracts and who was able to do 1000 points in a few hours without any money at all.

These wedges are very bearish patterns. Almost invariable the market drops back to the base and , more often than not, a lot further. These are, by the way, not the only indices that display these patterns. There are quite a few so there is all the more reason to take it seriously.