Year: 2012

NKO, Niko Resources update, a tentative buy.

Hamilton

nko b jul 2012nko m jul 2012NKO s jul 2012

Last time we looked, about a week ago, it was virtually impossible to tell if this stock had in fact completed the C-leg down in 5 waves. Today we cannot be sure today either but there is some constructive new information. First the RSI and the MACD are both at three year extremes. The count is five waves and hits the lower trend-line if you use the April rather than the August 2010 high; April is the actual high. Lastly, the short-term chart – I can only get 10 days! -  could be counted as an initial 5 wave move followed by an a-b-c down. This does not exclude a normal corrective rebound but it could also mean that a new bull was born. A logical first target would be about $42 . A stop at around $12.25 should be used just in case we have not seen the lows yet.

MSFT, Microsoft, update

Hamilton

First the usual then ( March 2, 2012) and now charts;

msft smsft jul 2012 s

The stock stopped dead in its tracks at exactly the right level two weeks later. It should drop to the lowest point of the triangle as a minimum, that is $22 or down about 30% from here. Looking at the big picture, much lower levels are possible and likely.

msft jul 2012 b

See also previous blog.

X, United States Steel and NUE, Nucor Corp.

Hamilton

x jul 2012NUe jul 2012

Two steel stocks, the oldest and newest. (Take care not to confuse X with TMX in Toronto!) Both peaked at the same time in 2008 and are now both declining. The retracements are shallow and we are getting lower highs. X seems to be well on its way down another leg whereas NUE is triangulating, a congestion pattern that is usually resolved in the same direction as it was entered, that is down

BRE-X

Hamilton

bre-x

It is difficult to get a chart after a stock has died. Here is the best I could find. It is textbook EW. 5 up and 3 down only in this case that was all there was. This stock traded on the TSE, not the Venture exchange so it was “safe”, almost a blue chip. Like a good novel the stage was set in a far away country, one where head-hunters were still held in high esteem, Borneo. The characters were also interesting, an ex money-market trader with a taste for booze, not uncommon by the way, a Dutchman who never lost his head and a side-kick womanizing fellow from the Philipines. SNC Lavalin  and American Barrick played minor but crucial roles. The best part, in my opinion, is this guy that is dropped out of a helicopter over the jungle without a parachute. He is found the next day! You would be lucky if you found a white 747 there within a month. We believe what we want to believe.

A report came out the other day that perhaps the number of psychopaths in the financial industry is as high as 10%, they don’t care. Earlier we saw that a majority of MBA students at Harvard thought nothing of cheating if it served their cause. The world is losing its moral compass and the temptation rises faster than the price of gold. So if you are caught in another stock scam, make sure you are at the winning end.