The BlackBerry is doing as expected even if, as usual, it is taking a long time. Soon the stock should surge by about $6 –$9 if the triangle is correct. Keep a stop at $13 just in case this outlook, and the a-b-c correction in blue, is wrong.
Month: May 2013
SFF, Seafield update
Toronto, Ontario, May 6, 2013 – Seafield Resources Ltd. (“Seafield” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: SFF)is pleased to announce that the board of directors of the Company has approved and adopted an Advance Notice By-law (the “By-law”). The By-law sets a deadline by which holders of record of common shares of the Company must submit a notice of director nominations to the Company prior to any annual or special meeting of shareholders and sets forth the information that a shareholder must include in the notice to the Company for it to be valid.
There was no news late April, instead it came on the 6th of May about a week later in the form of the above announcement. A change in the by-laws is always bad news as it might mean that the present management feels threatened by outsider shareholders starting some sort of proxy fight. The fairly high volume of trades lately at about 4.5 cents could be an early indicator that something is going on. In Canada you need, I believe, just 5% of the outstanding float to be heard. We will see.
ABX update
Then, April 26th , and now charts;
Try to envision the two charts flowing into each other. On the Tuesday of the 24th of April the stock actually traded with a $17 handle, close enough to our year plus ago target to buy. What is not (yet) clear is if this was actually THE low. If not we should expect an a-b-c rebound as shown in the two above charts. Today’s high at $22.55 is just touching on the gap that was formed on the way down. If you are nervous take the $3 profit. If not , just wait and see if the low was indeed the real one. After all it is hard to imagine a set of circumstances where so much bad news hits a stock in such a short time. Also they did issue debt going out some 30 years at reasonable yields of 5% or so which were well received.
S&P ,Walter Zimmermann’s 4th wave
This is the latest from Walter Zimmermann , a practising EWaver at United-ICAP. (see also S&P blog April 25th) His take on the matter is quite interesting as he sees it a little differently than most others. He thinks we are tracing out a fourth wave expanding (horizontal ) triangle. To my knowledge no one else is considering this possibility (and the Gainsville boys reject it on account of the wave c being 5, not 3 waves which, under EW rules is strictly verboten). This is, of course , the S&P, but similar patterns can be seen in the Dow. If correct a steep decline in wave e should start any moment and drop to about 540 in about 2 years. That would complete the entire pattern and the 4th wave. Following that a 5th wave should take it to new highs. By the way, this is completely different from “the jaws of death” pattern suggested by some, all though the rather extreme gyrations will be quite comparable. On the S&P we seem to be pretty well there (Zimmermann makes allowances for 1665). Put in a larger context this would be what we are looking at;
Clearly there is not much room left, either for the S&P or the Dow. Whether or not correct is an entirely different matter. But using the language of physics, clearly we are at one set of boundaries as set by the “degrees of freedom” that is presently available. Assuming that wave e is about to start a logical time for reaching the low would be about 2016 (it does not have to go all the way to the line!). By that time this wave 4 would have lasted 16+ years which just happens to correspond quite nicely with the 16 years that (presumable then) wave 2 took, from 1966 to 1982. Time will tell