The usual then, April 18, 2016, a year ago, and now charts;

So a year ago we strongly favoured the upside ( see also big picture chart in the previous blog), but just to be safe we recommended a stop at $7.25  Had you bought at the time it would have cost about $9.25 a share to buy the stock. The stop would never have been triggered. We were going for the triangle annotated in red as our much preferred strategy. It is shown in green in the chart on the right.

Right now the B wave triangle, that is a B in an A-B-C structure appears to fit best. The potential target is, perhaps, as high as $18 but given the clear overbought situation we would not wait and would, instead, sell now. At about $15 that should translate in a gain of 38% in a single year.

The real question here is what was the low? The low in 2013 or the low in 2014. If it was the latter, a case could be made that the stock is actually in a bull market and consequently has a lot more upside potential. We have a problem embracing such a view in the face of a 38% gain.

Blackberry is at a dangerous juncture, it has been triangulating for three or more years and has yet to show it’s hand. The positive thing is that the RSI is already near rock bottom which suggest the next move could be up. Use a stop at around $7.25

In the big picture C could be over but it could still need a 5th wave;

There are quite a few sceptics out there. The Wall Street Journal in it’s blog All Things D; is expressing disbelief and that other great financial paper, the Toronto Star is downright negative and so are most other commentators many of whom loved the stock at $140. In any event we think this should be sold at about $13.04, the 200 day moving average. No doubt it can go a lot higher but $4 on $9 in two weeks would be nice. The RSI will soon move into overbought territory and BNS has upgraded the stock to a buy for a target of $14+. But a good trader always leaves a little on the table for the next guy.

If you bought this, without thinking, as suggested you would be up a little more than 10%. Keep it for a little longer as the shorts in the US amount to 30.68% of the float. In Canada I do not have a number but on BNN they were talking about 40% total shorts. Furthermore there are now talks about this stock going private again. The combination of the two could produce some fireworks soon. From a pure EW standpoint, the a- triangle b- c correction is exactly that , a correction. This implies that the stock should trade above $18 some day in the not too distant future. This is a good risk/reward situation. Time will tell