ABX update

ABX jul 22 2013

You should be long this stock, so where do you exit? My guess at this point is that in the worst case we are in a wave that could rise to about $18,54 (50 day moving average), followed by a b and then a c perhaps towards $22, a minor 4th wave of previous degree. This morning the stock should get to that initial level of $18,54. If you wish to play it safe take the $3 profit – almost 20% – and run, or, alternatively try the trade a second time.

This stock has been crashing for the better part of two years. A rebound of a week or two is way too short. That is, of course, if the stock actually bottomed. There are a few reasons to believe it did (for the time being). Clearly there are 5 waves down if you care to see them. Also looking at CEF.A, G, and FNV support for this view exists for different reasons ;

cef.a jul 22 2013g july 22 2013fnv jul 22 2013

All have slightly different patterns but all COULD be viewed as having (temporarily?) bottomed. See also previous blogs on these miners. If correct it should pay of to wait for about $22 on ABX. If, like Bernanke, you too do not understand gold, there is always the stop-loss!

P.S. My math early in the morning is not that hot. The profit would be about $4, which on $14.5 is about 27%.