VLO, Valero Energy Corp.

vlo july 14 2015

For the record we got this one wrong about 2 1/2 years ago. this time there are slightly more compelling arguments. Conceivable the required 5 wave sequence to complete this leg from the lows is complete. The double top level is still a bit higher but it may well fall short of that. Presently it is on the channel (5-year) upper boundary. The 5th wave is clear. The RSI may repeat the action of two years ago but the MACD is ringing the bell loud and clear. A sell now and perhaps a short if it manages to get closer to $77.

A long/short play is perhaps not a bad idea either. As an example, see below in blue, the spread between RDS.B and VLO is the widest it has been for years. If you use the ADR for RDS.B the stocks are comparable so you could short one VLO against long one RDS.B ADR and  have an almost sector neutral net position and short Beta  (1.95 against 1.25);

VLO long short