FCX, are we there?

Here are the usual then, Jan. 19 2012, and now charts;

FCX jan 2012FCX dec 18 2015

Freeport is our favourite copper (and the largest goldmine by reserves) mining stock. Back in 2012 (see the blogs) we had a rough target of $10 or lower. This was not based on any particular prescient view on the price of copper in the future, nor was it based on the prospects of the housing market in China. Also we were blissfully unaware of huge copper finds like Ivanhoe in Mongolia or one or two others in Chile. Also as they were tearing out copper piping all over North America we did not know that copper would essentially cease to be used for home construction. What we did know was that there was an absolutely perfect example of a B wave in the chart. They are followed by a C wave down to, usually, a new low. That is exactly what we got.

So are we there? Judging by copper the stuff we are certainly close (see recent blog). Looking at the chart in more detail it is safe to assume that the drop from $38 or so over the past year and a bit is all a 5th wave. (C waves must be 5-waves!), either a straightforward one or a wedge of sorts;

fcx dec 18 2015 scopper dec 18 2015

As you can readily see, we are less than $1 away from the trendline (this is log-scale!), in fact we may already have done enough. Copper hit the $2 precisely. The RSI and the MACD on the stock are already acting positively. Somewhere here, soon, this should be a buy. Below is a picture showing the size of this thing; Sorry, it does not fit, see next blog.