Year: 2015

TSX update

Hamilton

TSX feb 13 2015

After looking at the HXD and HXU, it occurred to me that the TSX might – I repeat, might – be peaking at around this level. Again the drop in September is unequivocally a 5 wave downward move, not 3. The bounce following it is without question a 3 wave leg. The next one down, b , is ambiguous. The c that follows should be 5, which might actually be the case if this is a wedge. Put all this together and you have a W1 down followed by a wave 2 retracement. It is a lot of retracement but , provided the peak stays below the 15685 level of Sept. that is fine.

     The bullish alternative would be if the Dec. low was the end of a correction (or alternatively there is actually a triangle that ends in Jan. In those scenarios we would be in wave 3 of 5 that could continue to 16000 or so (see chart below). The RSI and MACD do not support this.

tsx feb 13 2015 b

At this point all this is rather academic considering how far it has already gone, but it will be helpful in determining how fast we go down. If 15685 is not exceeded we will find ourselves in wave 3 down, good for at least 3000 points!

HXU update and HXD

Hamilton

The usual then – Jan 14, 2015 – and now charts;

HXU jan 14 2015HXU feb 13 2015

We strained to believe it but the triangle was unmistakeable (as it was in so many other places) that it could not be ignored. In case you did heed the advice you could have owned this at about $26. We would sell today for a small profit of about 16% for the month. The very simple reason is that despite the very clear possibility of this ETF going to $34, we recognize that there is a possibility that there never was a triangle. The first leg down, the a leg, always looked more like a 5-wave affair than 3 waves. That is a no no in a triangle. From that low point in October we could have been doing a simple a-b-c (in black) counter trend bounce. This will be negated at around $31.30 , so less than a dollar away, but in the mean time this is a big risk for an investment that goes against the grain in any event.

A look at the counterpart, the HXD makes the above all the more plausible;

HXD feb 13 2015

Essentially this is, of course, the inverse of the HXU. Here we have a similar triangle which is probable a valid interpretation as this ETF actually already has made a new low. The last leg down, moreover, very much resembles a wedge. RSI and MACD are turning so this might be a very good thing to buy now. The extra charming attribute is that the HXD is relatively immune to a further rise in the TSX if that unexpectedly were to occur.

OIL update

Hamilton

Oil feb 13 2015

This is still our prognosis for oil. The bigger the number, the higher the degree. In the end wave C should bottom at a level below the $31 level of 2010, most likely near $10 the level it reached in the second half of the nineties. By one count that was a wave 4!

Citygroup and Goldman both are “predicting” oil to drop to around $20. The problem is that they are not predicting but are instead manipulating. If enough players pay attention it will no doubt come to pass.

AEX, Amsterdam update from Jan. 25th

Hamilton

aex feb 2015

Two or so weeks ago 465 looked like a reasonable target. We have gone a little more sideways while the World decided that Putin really is a nice guy and that the Greeks are trustworthy and will surely repay every cent they owe. Now the target looks more like 475, give or take. On a normal chart we are there! Objects are closer than you think.

Using a normal, non semi-log chart as from Yahoo, we may actually be at the target after all, but it is no longer the messy expanding diagonal and instead has become perfectly confined in a channel.

aex feb 13 2015