oil jan 20 2016

Unlike the Bank of Canada we have no idea how oil might  go. Not too long ago they had no idea but now, all of a sudden they are confident it will trade at about $36 on average for the remainder of 2016. At least we have been pretty accurate with our predictions.

Where we are now it is hard to fathom . All we do know is that the 4th of previous degree, not that long ago in 1998 or so, is around $11. Furthermore the 5th wave in commodities unlike equities is often the longest. On top of that we still are of the opinion that a 4 and 5 are still required. In short, do not believe anything you hear on TV from experts that never dreamed that oil could  possible go below $80 or so.

Wave 5 would be equal to 3 at about $25. After that there is little else than that 4th wave of previous degree at $11 to guide us.

Tonight the futures roll-over with the front month becoming March instead of February. Due to contango, there will be a price increase of about a dollar due to the downward slope.