AGU , Agrium update

agu feb 9 2016

In 2012 this stock looked ripe for a drop. All the others did but not this one, which is plain to see from the relative performances.

pot feb 9 2016 pot and mos

So Agrium did not  behave as expected and went on up for about three years, making a new high in early 2015. This move from the 2009 lows is messy and has a lot of overlap, but if you break it down you have two distinct, almost equal, legs up. In the middle there is a pause which has all the characteristics of a running correction. The whole thing is quite symmetrical which is why we prefer the B-wave scenario to that of a 5th wave. Both, by the way, would have the same target around $25, by they would differ in how you get there. (a single 5 wave sequence or an a-b-c ).

Ultimately AGU should join the others once again somewhere near the 2006 levels. This would make an interesting pairs trade, long 5 POT(or MOS) against short one AGU.