TSX etc. update

tsx 20 october 2017

We had this interpretation in our previous blogs, either a series of 4-5s or, more likely, a diagonal triangle 5th wave.  This is a long chart and therefore does not lend itself for precise predictions but our take on this is that we are about to peak and that a dramatic drop is straight ahead as that is a “diagonal” which invariable retrace their entire advance. In this case that would amount to roughly a 2/3 loss from whatever peak lies ahead.

djia 20 oct 2017

The Dow is going vertical, and if anything, confirms the possibility of a major top.

ABX in C$$ and XAU in US$$, some thoughts

abx sept 23 2017xau sept 23 2017

The time scales are, unfortunately a little different, ABX’s is much longer but you get the point. Just superficially I could come up with a multitude of counts, at least four in these two charts. No idea which one is the best but the one in green seems to have the most followers right now. Most importantly, apart from a slight immediate drop, the next bigger move for all of them is up not down. Playing it from the long side appears to be the way to go. For ABX it might pay to wait for $18,$17 or something like that first.

WJA, Westjet update

The usual then, July 11 of this year, and now charts;

WJA july 11 2017wja sept 19 2017

$27 was the target at that time and that was reached just a few days ago. It looks complete now. Not only is the structure of the rebound a clear a – triangle b – c, that is a corrective move, pretty clear but it also retraces a little more than 62% of the drop AND both the MACD and the RSI have turned down more than a month ago.

If the A-B-C scenario is correct, this stock could reach a level of $12 or so. Time to disembark ?

Air Canada, that was featured in the same blog, went three or four dollars higher than we anticipated which just proves that perfection is elusive.

BA, Boeing update

 BA jan 16 2016BA sept 15 2017

Boeing is actually the largest component of the ITA in our previous blog. The chart on the left is a year and a half old and despite getting it wrong we show it nevertheless as it illustrates what the right count might be. Whatever the case, we still feel that the 2009 low was somehow the end of a 4th wave. If correct the rest is a fifth wave which now, more clearly than before, is completing or, at the very least , very near to completion.

There is one little quirk with this company and that is their method of accounting, that is the “programme accounting method”. Essentially costs of manufacturing are allocated to production according to an estimated initial production run. Any costs above that, per unit, are simple capitalized to be spread out over future production. So far about $35 billion has been capitalized. To put that in perspective, that is about 5 to 10 years of profits. If the company fails to sell according to initial expectations there is a hefty price to pay further down the road. Beyond that the company is meeting its pension shortfall, one of the largest of any S&P companies, with its own shares, a dubious practice at best.

The stock is now going vertical. It is not clear how this is a Trump effect as the company was berated for charging way to much for the next set of Air Force One’s . Anyway it is all talk. EW wise this stock is a sell.

Below is an alternative count;

BA sept 15 2017 l