GE and Crude Oil

GE 2020Crude Oil 2020

EW is all about pattern recognition which is more or less the same as finding a correlation between two entities or between two different time periods. Sometimes finding some sort of correlation is easier than counting little waves. It is also easier to verify the correctness of the analysis as all you really need to have is an outcome that is pleasing to the eye!

Once upon a time these serious German analysts discovered that there was a near perfect correlation between the number of storks flying over Stuttgart and the number of Mercedes-Benzes sold a month later. We know, of course, that there is no causal relationship between the two but that points to the heart of the matter, which is that you do not need to know or understand the cause, all you need is to observe.

The charts above are not perfectly aligned in time simple because I don’t know how to manipulate the values on the x and y axis. Nevertheless there is a clear resemblance between the two. Moreover I have been consistently bearish on oil expecting it to drop to about $10/b., see for instance my take on Suncor, SU and many others. GE was a little different, as it looked to me as if the entire correction was over  at the 2009 low of, I believe, $5 (not shown in this chart!). But then I changed the outlook and started looking for another low, but still used the wrong count maybe.(see this blog).

Anyway if oil does go to $10/b, it already dropped just under $18/b despite Trump’s nth attempt at “the art of the deal”, then GE could easily drop proportionately by, say, 3 or more dollars. Ergo I think GE at $4 is a screaming buy! Apart from this “analysis” I also believe that GE cannot go bankrupt as a practical matter as it is an integral part of the US military industrial complex.  Together with Pratt and Whitney and Rolls Royce, GE is one of just three companies in the Western World capable of making these large turbines. With America First policies it is unimaginable that they would allow it to fail.

Despite all of the above it still remains possible that the original count, that of a large A-B-C correction from $55 to $5 was correct and was then followed by a wave 1 up of a new bull trend. The drop from $32 to the recent low of $6+ would then be a wave 2. Next would be wave 3 up.

By the way, you cannot make one of these in your proverbial garage by tinkering with old lawnmower parts and oil at $10/b will shut down oil production by 85% simple because it becomes uneconomical. The link between this engine and oil is that this thing burns 4kg/sec of jetfuel, about 240 liters per minute. You can easily drive your car for more than a month on that.

ge turbofan