Just days after Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO ) put expansion plans for its massive Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia on hold after being told approval of the plans would need parliament’s assent — and that wouldn’t happen anytime soon because it was in summer recess — the prime minister said the miner doesn’t need the governing body’s imprimatur and the work can proceed as scheduled.
From Yahoo finance. See what a little frolicking on horseback – no saddle – can do.
Jan. 14th of 2012 we were absolutely sure that this stock was a sell. Nice B wave followed by a first wave down and a retracement that should not have exceeded $55. It didn’t and the stock promptly lost about 30% of it’s value. Nice but not good enough. Here we are again at $70. This time we can argue that there is another, much larger B-wave. It is rather large but perhaps not in the context of the 3.5 trillion that the Fed. has used to force you into equities. We are at the original upper trend line and would again sell any time now between here and $75. Target under EW rules is $15
By the way, if the B-wave is viewed as too large, not unreasonable, than we would have no problem with a 5th wave instead from the lows of $15. The end result, once the dust settles, should be about the same.
Some previous blogs were fairly accurate but we forgot to follow up. It seems like the whole investment industry has forgotten this company that was once a role model for the mutual fund industry. Somehow they managed to make themselves irrelevant much faster than their peers. If, repeat IF, our analysis today is anywhere near correct the company will soon be completely irrelevant.
In the big picture we appear to be looking at an A-B-C zig-zag correction from the highs of $40. This is a 5-3-5 structure. Anyway we are in the C part and Cs are always 5 waves. Problem is that we have not made a new low which we should. The other problem is that wave 4 of C already overlaps with wave 1 of C. This is an absolute no-no EXCEPT if we are looking at an expanding diagonal triangle. These occur only in 5th wave positions (or Cs) and are the only pattern that allows overlap, indeed it is normal to have overlap. This last leg may go all the way to the trend line but frequently does not quite get there. A $4 or $3 target would be perfectly compatible with this scenario. Note that both the RSI and MACD are not confirming the recent new highs. A sell.
The usual then – Oct 2012 – and now charts. Nothing to add. Probable a series of 3 1-2s over the past nine months. When it breaks down it should accelerate.