F, update

Hamilton

f aug 3 2013

In our last blog on Ford , in Oct. of 2012, we recommended F as a buy at about $7.80 (see previous blog).  We missed the boat by a fraction and now we are changing our count. Instead of being in wave 3 up we suspect the stock is still correcting the move up from below $1 to $19. The initial wave down to $8.70 or $8.56 would be wave a. The rise back up , where we are now, would be wave b. Wave c could start any moment and could reach that $7.80 level or even lower this time around. Sell now and see if it breaks down as it should. The RSI and MACD are supporting this outlook.  Given this structure so far, a flat 3-3-5 would make the most sense which argues that the low was at $8.70, not $8.56. For the moment, who cares?

TRQ, update

Hamilton

trq aug 2 2013

Short-term analysis using EW can be a little difficult due to the dearth of data points , so far so good so we will hazard an educated guess. Wave 3 of one (or A) was completed this morning right on the open. All action during the day was wave 4 and Tuesday we will do wave 5 of one – most of that will already be done in the US as they are open Monday. This should take us above $6  Then wave 2 (or B) back to $4.50 or so and then the next leg up. In the mean time rumours have it that the great-great-grandson of Genghis Kahn has challenged the CEO of Rio Tinto (or a substitute if he so chooses) to a friendly pony horse race across the Mongolian steppes. He will lose ,of course, and if he can keep his head, he will, as that is what local etiquette demands. This will lead to a new budding friendship and all the minor flies in the ointment will be removed and Mongolia will prosper for years to come. This stock will flie once again.

BB update

Hamilton

bb aug 1 2013

When you practise EW it is best not to think, for some that is not a problem, for others like myself , that is the hardest part. Here it is, a very clear completed a – b – c correction with the b as a triangle (somewhere). It drops back to the area of the 4th wave of previous degree, erases about 2/3 of the initial rise in wave 1. All exactly what a 2d wave is supposed to do! So maybe that is what it is: then there are only two possibilities. Wave 3 is next, or, a wave C of a much larger A-B-C counter trend correction is coming.  In both cases the stock should one day trade close to about $21. Just do it, don’t think about it. Using a stop at $8 will make it easier to swallow.

FC, Facebook update

Hamilton

FB Aug 1 2013

This is as good as it gets. Gap is closed, c is equal to or a little larger than a, the pattern (at this point in time!) looks like a completed a-b-c counter trend retracement and it is the first day of a new month. RSI and MACD are screaming sell as well.