See our most recent blog on the FTSE. The argument was that 6000 would be critical. As it happens the index’s slide of almost 13% in a single month found a bottom and regained it regained its composure, for the moment at least. The drop is a rather clear 5 wave move so a rebound is not that surprising. After an a-b-c wave 2 to about 6400/6500 the slide down should resume. The 5 wave initial move is clear in the FTSE but not in all indices so this interpretation could be incorrect. The DAX has an equally clear initial 5 waves down, but the DOW looks more like a corrective a-b-c! see below;
ABX update, again and K, Kinross
Our best guess is that ABX is completing the 5th wave of 3. A trend line target would be somewhere around $14 which is also where waves 1 and 5 of 5 are equal. The RSI seems to support this. The reason why the stock will be a buy there is that there should then be a 4th wave (of larger degree) to take the stock up fairly rapidly to $24 and possible a lot higher as the guideline of alternation would suggest this wave should take the form of a zig-zag. The stock is a buy regardless of how precisely this plays out as even at todays price the outlook is for an $8 rebound or 50%. During this 5th wave of 3 the stock dropped from $40 to $16 or 60%. Regardless of the fundamentals a rebound here would fit nicely.
K, Kinross, is essentially in a similar position!, that is a 4 of C starting about now (slightly different from count in previous blogs). It could bounce from the high $4 to close to $10 before it starts its last dive in 5.
See also previous takes on Kinross.
JPM update
This is a double take on JP Morgan, using Yahoo and Globe & Mail charts (see also previous blogs). As always the charts can be enlarged by clicking on them! JPM is arguable the most prominent US financial institution having once played the role of quasi central bank. Where it goes should tell us a thing or two about where the US financial system as a whole goes. EW is invariable full of nasty ambiguities which makes the counting of the sequences difficult. In this case we have a long triangle or a short one. These constructs occur only in 4th waves or B waves (including the B within a B-wave). It has to be one or the other. In the former case , a 4th wave, the target is around $70 and the timing could be years out still. In the latter case, a B within a B-wave, the target is more like $60 and the timing is “around the corner”, that is sometime in the next year or so. Both scenarios are positive for the moment but by the same token both will become very negative down the road. Our preference, marginally, is for the B-wave triangle (in black or purple).
FTSE update
This is the Financial Times 100 index from Bigcharts. Recently it topped out for a third time at 6876, roughly at the same level it had reached the previous two times. I do not understand EW well enough to make accurate pronouncement on what the ups and downs represent, but looking exclusively at the last up leg one can quite reliable conclude that it is a B-wave. The two perfectly equal legs with an expanding triangle intervening make that an almost certainty. In any event a drop now substantially below about 6000, we are presently at 6116, would create overlap and limit most other alternatives (there are three possible triangle in the middle three years, an expanding one, a normal horizontal contracting one and a third one starting one phase later). Below is the more detailed picture;
Once overlap occurs the index is likely to drop to , at least, 4800 and probable all the way to the bottom.