ABX update

Hamilton

abx apr 10 2013

ABX is nearing our target of $25. We would buy at that level with a stop maybe two dollars lower. We would be looking for a wave 4 as a minimum, that is a rebound of about $10. Our friends at Goldman Sachs, who have every central banker in their rolodex, just announced their dim views on gold going forward. The Chilean government just announced an injunction against ABX’s Pascua-Lama project, which may be a blessing in disguise. From an EW perspective everything is in place for, at the very least, a wave 4 rebound of roughly $10. We are precisely on the bottom trend line and there are a number of specific niceties happening that only an EW-aver would appreciate. Otherwise it is worth noting that both the RSI and MACD would support a nice rebound. A buy!

FSLR update

Hamilton

The usual then (a year ago) and now charts;

fslr apr 2012fslr apr 10 2013

And the text, quote

Last time we were ambivalent about this stock. Now, that is after loosing $300 out of $320, the stock might actually be ripe for a decent , however not without a tight stop. Potentially a bounce could double the value of this stock and given the recent bad news this might just be the right time.

unquote.

Well we were about 40 days too early and $8 too high, but if you had followed this recommendation you would now have doubled your money! See detailed chart below;

fslr apr 10 2013 s

The stock hits the low at the beginning of June, which is also where the breakout is. Some may argue that a tight stop was recommended. True, but even so one could have re-entered the position a number of times and more than doubled your gain. Next stop is probable $50.

SFF, Seafield Resources update

Hamilton

sff apr 5 2013

For the fundamentals, go to;  http://sffresources.com/_resources/presentations/SFF_Corporate_Presentation.pdf

This report shows the “Robust Economics” of the project, together with the following peer group comparison;

sff apr 5 peer group

Continental gold is a clear outlier and, for that reason, I have taken it out. The result is that the average “enterprise value” drops from $17.94 to $4.53 per ounce, and Seafield now shows quite well at a slightly higher EV of $4.60. I have also added a column showing the share price range for the period of the above chart. SFF has lost a little more than 9/10th of its value. Only BAT and RN manage to do far worse. CNL looks to be the most attractive with a share drop of only 50% and a market cap. of $791. By that metric SFF is second to last with a market cap of $13 mln (some of which is not real equity as it was recently borrowed under a Faustian deal).

The EW counts , there are more than one, would suggest that the stock is approaching a low, perhaps in the 4 to 5 cents range. That is so close to zero that such a call is essentially immaterial or useless. Nevertheless there is the potential for a double. All call options, warrants and so on, there are some 30 mln. at last count, start at 10 cents and go on to about 30 cents so not much will happen before the stock reaches the lower end of that range. After that desperation may keep a lid on any further gains. To date the company’s only real asset is an EV of $4.60 per ounce calculated on the basis of a property in the bush that now resembles Swiss cheese. It will take another two years and $50 mln. or so before a single ounce is poured. A buy but only with play money.

Sprott, SII, at $2.61 might be a better bet;

sii apr 2013