FTSE, the footsie (London) and C (Citigroup)

Hamilton

ftse dec 10 2012c dec 10 2012

On the left we have the FTSE, London for the past 5 years. On the right the same idea with Citi Group. Very roughly one can divide the time frame in both these charts in two segments. Granted that I have chosen rather arbitrary points, I still hope that the general idea will come across. The first segment is the rebound immediately after the steep drop preceding it. In both cases the lion’s share of the rebound is accomplished in a little over a year. Then there is the second segment during which the index/stock essentially do not move all that much. So far this segment has lasted just shy of 3 years. It can be very painful if you are expecting a move of some substance and it simple does not happen. Be patient, it will but only after you have almost given up.

We do not know what will happen to the FTSE, but we do know precisely what happened to Citi Group. Here they are again in a larger time-frame;

ftse dec 10 2012 bc dec 10 2012 b

Who knows if there is any predictive value in this analysis. Time will tell.

CON, Connemarra Mining Company plc. (on AIM)

Hamilton

This is an exploration company, founded in 2007, operating in Ireland and searching for Zinc primarily but also all the other by-products like gold , silver, copper etc. Zinc at the peak was trading at $5000 a ton and has come down to about $2000. These guys are “Driven by results” and everything is “first class”. Here is the chart;

con dec 8 2012

A solid company no doubt, but the claim that they are driven by results certainly does not seem to extend to the stock value. Furthermore, despite Shakespeare’s musings about what is, or is not, in a name, it is hard not to wonder who the not too bright wiz kid was that chose the ticker symbol. Apart from that, what is there not to like? The company’s equity consists entirely of intangible assets, that is capitalized exploration expenses. Otherwise another bright spot is its association with Teck Cominco at Stonepark where the two companies have a few joint ventures.

MOO Market-Vectors Agribusiness ETF, update

Hamilton

The usual then , 28th of July 2011 and now charts;

moo 28 july 2011moo dec 8 2012

Here again, we have waited a year and ten months from the rebound peak and are trading at a price that is within 10% of that high.  This is giving a new meaning to the “waitin for the cows to come home” saying.

BAD, Badger Daylighting update

Hamilton

Back on July the 8th we showed this chart;

BAD 2012 l

In red what we thought would happen and , in green, the alternative possibility. Given the time that had already passed we preferred the red scenario and we were dead wrong. With the benefit of a little hindsight we should , of course, have known that all these QEs etc. would have elongated time itself and that is now water under the bridge. Nevertheless , now we can confidently predict once again that this stock is going to go down but probable not before it has once again traded above $32.  The exact EW count is somewhat confusing as there appears to be an extension of at least one of the waves in c though it is not entirely clear which one. The big picture, however, is quite clear;

Bad dec 8 2012 bbad dec 8 2012 s

We can be very precise where the top will come in. The trend line is at $32.50 but, in the event of a throw-over minor 5 will equal minor 1 after travelling $2.50 so the max. should be around 31 + 2.50 = $33.50. This time I do not have a clear alternative. The $5.85 shown in the old chart has no significance whatsoever.