DLTR, Dollar Tree

Hamilton

dltr oct 11 2011 dltr oct 11 s 2011

Dollar Tree is a remarkable success story, one that I certainly got completely wrong. This stock behaves in a perverse and inverse way to most others, the worse things get the better it does, it works sort of like food banks. The chart on the left is on an arithmetic and you can consequently see how the chart curves upwards at a sharper tangent as it goes vertical, where it is now. The chart on the right is semi-log, revealing a perfectly straight channel .

I have absolutely no idea what the count is! I would suggest that it also does not matter much, this is a sell as you hit the upper trend line (at $84, or so) or before that.

AA, reporting tomorrow

Hamilton

AA oct 11 2011

Back in July we ventured a guess that the stock might drop to anywhere between $10 and $4. It does not look like we are there yet, even though we reached the b-wave level on the way up. Al is so often the case, nothing is perfectly clear but another, 5th way down does appear to be in the cards. The stock is already down 55% from this year’s highs.

DAX, update.

Hamilton

If you heeded my prediction that the Dax would find support at around 5100, and bought in, you are now up about 13.7% from that level. I would recommend getting out!

DAX oct 11 2011

As illustrated a few times since, it looks like the DAX has not yet completed a 5 wave sequence down, which is fairly clear from the trend lines. Wave 4 would normally retrace about 40 to 60% of wave 3 (which in any case is the bulk of the drop). It is now on the upper trend line, at approximately the wave 4 level of 3 down and c=a , roughly,of wave 4 of 3. Time to get out. To belabor the point , we ad Siemens for further illustration;

si oct 11 2011