T, Telus. (update).

Hamilton

t 2011 4

See also previous blogs. This company reported earnings today and beat the street by 1 cent. They all either beat, or miss by 1,2, or 3 cents but it is completely useless and meaningless noise. The stock, in any case , barely moved. It first fell 62% and then retraced a similar amount and it now sits at the b-wave level of the 2007/10 drop. The light on this one is neither red or green , instead it is yellow.

Nevertheless the stock is a sell. This is the original Alberta government telecom company gone private. In Canada governments are fooling around with band-width, content and other such issues. The CRTC is soon going to come with some new rules etc.etc. Competition should increase and as our 3 main phone companies charge exorbitant fees, relative to other markets, odds are that their profitability will decrease. At the present level the stock is up 70% from the blows and clearly well into the “high” range by a very healthy margin.

CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Hamilton

cmg 2011

What bear market? This one is like Netflix, but trading at a modest p/e of 50X. Are we there yet ? Probable not yet. Bull moves, impuls waves or whatever one wishes to call them normally follow the standard 5-wave pattern. But there are all sorts of 1-2, 1-2 type of situations, extensions and so on that throw the proverbial monkey-wrench into the count. The way to solve this is by simple counting the speed bumps, they have to add up to 5, 9,13 etc. We have done (or are still doing) 8. So one more, perhaps 290, but hardly worth waiting for.

CCO, Cameco

Hamilton

CCO 2011 feb

A picture is worth a thousand words! Do we know anymore than the next guy where this is going? Of course not. But we can see the following;

1. The stock has retraced about 62% of the drop in 2009. This does not imply that it cannot go higher, but it does tell you that you could be at a critical point of sorts.

2. The drop in 2008/9 is a distinct a-b-c. Typically these are retraced to the level of the b-wave, in this case just around $43 where you are now.

3. Retracements, either up or down often take the form of a-b-c and very often the relationship between the c and a wave is one of equality, i.e. c=a where we are now.

4. Applying the buy low , sell high rule, it is pretty clear that we are more in the high than low range.

5. We could be in a 5th wave up, on our way to $70 or higher. This is certainly not impossible but nevertheless unlikely. In this scenario the drop from 1996 to 2000 would be a wave 2 and the drop in 2008/9 a wave 4. The problem with that is that there is no alternation, not impossible but still a very low probability scenario.

This is a stock that should be exited, plain and simple. See previous blogs