BPO, Brookfield Properties, Feb 2010

BPO March 31

On March 31 ,2008 BPO was first mentioned as a buy for the very simple reason that the RSI and MACD had been rising for quite some time without the stock doing so (see above chart).

From , more or less, that point the stock started its ascend and to this day has not stopped (see charts below).

BPO Feb 2010 2 BPO Feb 2010

This company is part of the former Brascan conglomerate and related to the Asset Management arm that goes by the ticker PAM.A on Toronto. Properties is actually a US company. It saw its net income tumble by 60% last week when it reported its most recent earnings. Its top line , however, increased slightly while occupancy rates (the achilles  heel of this industry) declined as a result of additions to the portfolio. As essentially these operations consist of bricks and mortar on the asset side against debt on the liability side (even if equity is high) the perception if not reality is that these companies are very sensitive to interest rates.

   Relative to where it has been this one could go higher, however, from here on the risk/reward becomes decidedly less attractive. If you still own it use a trailing stop to safeguard your 250% gain.

TSE Feb 6 2010.

TSE Feb4 2010 TSE feb 6 2010

The original idea that this may develop as a b-wave, as shown yesterday, may not be correct. B-waves are 3-waves not 5-waves and unless I am blind this is a 5-wave move. Ergo the possibility has to be entertained that this is wave one of the next leg (a small 3d wave.) If correct there is just a little more upside on Monday as we now have seen so often and then a virtual crash for the next leg. This is very tricky but very possible!

OTC Open Text, Feb 2010.

I have been wrong on this one on thinking that it would triple top and go no further. Well it did and it showed its cards clearly. This is a short soon!

OTC Jan 2010 2 OTC Jan 2010

Bothe the multi year trend line and the triangle measure suggest a top around $51/52. However this is a pretty sure thing so you may want to make your move a little earlier or play it with put options. This pattern is very clear and very reliable!

Unemployment Feb 2010

All morning the whole world seems to be waiting for the unemployment number, not the Canadian but the US one. This one is supplied by the Dept. of Labor and is notorious for the enormous revisions and non factual basis. This time the big number went down to 9.7%, but the absolute number over the last 2 years went up from 7.2 mln to 8.4 mln, an additional 1.2 mln, but that was expected so it did nothing. A loss of 75,000 in the housing sector did surprise but could be explained by snow in Florida. The initial reaction of the market by way of the futures was positive even though Paris made new lows before regaining its composure.

      We would prefer to look at these things from a macro economic perspective, or , if you wish , from 30000 feet. Better yet we looked at Shadow Government Stats, a website that does things the way they were done in the 80-ties. Here is the chart again.

Unemployment rate jan 2010

Notice that even by the more correct “official” U-3 and U-6 stats we are already above 17%