EL, Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. update

el june 2012 mel june 2012

Since our comments of March 5th earlier this year.this stock went right to the max and then dropped about 20%. It will drop quite a bit more! The very first EW target is at $40, which is where wave 5 , a diagonal (wedge), started and these should be retraced entirely. Beyond that $31 is the 62% retracement of the entire value of this stock at the peak (roughly $65). These are all normal levels but they can easily be exceeded. We all know the meaning of putting lipstick on a pig. Here it is a matter of keeping the pig behind the lipstick which, as any hog farmer will tell you,  is near impossible.

EL, Estee Lauder Cos Inc.

el b 2012el s 2012

EL Analyst Opinion

This stock has traded at a high of $60.365 but the charts suggest it might go a little higher. The charts and the price targets of 18 brokers suggest maybe $65 is in the cards. By the way not a single broker is suggesting a sell. If one considers that those lucky enough to own this stock, have a six bagger for sure one can only wonder what the adage buy low, sell high  means in practice. In our opinion it means now or hold on with a very tight stop.

    There are a few very good reasons to sell. The upper trend line is at about $65. At $65 waves 1 and 5 are equal. $62 is a nice round Fibo #. A thrust from the present, minor wave 4 triangle, would target about $63. The RSI and MACD are both already heading down. Last but not least, the analysts that are always excellent prognosticators are calling for $63.56, not a single one out of 18 has a sell, it does not seem to be part of their DNA