JOY revisited

Then, Dec. 2012, and now charts as usual;

Joy dec 12 2012Joy july 13 2015

The prediction (by EW, not me!) was pretty prescient as the stock kept travelling down. However, the EW argument was dead wrong! At the time (see the blog) I mentioned the clear B-wave as that featured prominently in many other charts and seemed to fit the picture just fine. Looking at it again, that count must be discarded. If this was a C wave from the top of $101 it would have to subdivide in 5 sub waves without overlap. That is equally clearly not the case so the count on the left, in purple, cannot be. Instead I would now put the top of wave 5 where B used to be, so the correction starts in 2011 and not in 2008. Now the complete correction and not just a C wave, can become a double zig-zag that will go down at least to $10. But for the moment it does look as if the a part of the second a-b-c is about complete. For the nimble this may be a buy for a decent bounce of about $15 to $45.

JOY is the world’s largest manufacturer of underground mining equipment, about 60% coal and 20% copper.

JOY Global.

Joy dec 12 2012joy dec 14 2012 s

JOY is in the business of supplying above and below ground mining machinery. It is comparable to companies like Finning, Cummings, Cat. etc. etc. It did quite well the most recent quarter but it also “guided” down for what is coming next, citing oversupply in the mining industry. The stock, together with the others mentioned,  has done extraordinarily well due to the commodities bubble that we have had or are having. Another factor that may have played a role is that as of today, precisely in fact, we have had 4 full years of interest rates essentially at zero. On top of that 100% accelerated depreciation for corporate tax purposes makes buying capital equipment relatively very attractive, more so than hiring labor. Other than in such wonderful places as the Congo, more machines and less people are used than ever before. (This is an economic phenomenon that every first year economist is aware of, except , it seems, the Fed.) This all caused the euphoria that pushed this stock into a Mnt. Everest high of $100+ in what is clearly a B-wave. So far the stock has only lost 50% or so. More will come.

Below is Finning for comparison purposes;

ftt dec 14 2012