OSG, now OSGIQ, Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. update FRO

Then (July 3d) and now charts;

osg m 2012osg nov 18 2012

Our guess at the time was about $6. We were wrong as it is now $ 0.65, but at least we got the direction right. At 65 cents the count is essentially irrelevant as it can only go down another 65 cents. Notice also that the ticker was changed, the stock now has an IQ and trades on the “pink” sheets.

The company filed for chapter 11 last week, November the 14th. It did so on a voluntary basis and hopes that this will allow it to clean up it’s balance sheet. It has enough cash on hand to tide it through. This company is one of the largest, the second largest to be precise, in the oil tanker business with a very modern fleet of about 110 tankers. It operates under US flags and consequently benefits from the preferential treatment provided for by the Jones Act.

osg mvs nov 18osg vs nov 18 2012

The stock made a low of 48 cents last week. That would fit the count nicely. Analysts, for what they are worth, are pretty upbeat on the company.

OSG  Investor Relations  Analyst Estimates

Talk to your broker and when you do buy be careful with the ticker symbol , specify the pink sheets, as there are a few other OSGIQ’s , JP Morgan Mid Cap A Fund being one of them. By the way, FRO, Frontline and EXM are  in a similar position but have not filed. See previous blog. Also as noted in earlier blogs , these boats are just fine but there are too many of them. This is what happens when you invest in overcapacity. You have to write it off. Now China has stimulated its economy by investing in capital goods to the tune of 46% of GDP, guess what is going to happen there.

DJTA, Dow Jones Transportation Average a.k.a the Rails, OSG

djta jul 2012

The DJTA has outperformed the Dow Industrials, it is also the older of the two. Why has it done so well when shipping companies are down so much? Simple because not that much is transported by Americans , stock listed companies, in America by water. Of the 20 companies in this index only two are classified as “maritime”. One , ALEX, Alexander & Baldwin is a Honolulu based land-owner active in agribusiness, sugar cane etc. At best it runs a few ferries between the Hawaiian islands. The other is OSG, Overseas Shipholding Group. It too has gone down like a rock but as this index is cap-weighted its significance in the index is fast approaching zero. Here are the charts;

osg 2012osg m 2012

osg s 2012

We give all three, big , medium and small. We are 100% confident about the big picture, it is nearly there. We are not certain about the triangle , it may not be wave 4 but just part of it, but the final result should still be a little lower. Should be a buy if and when it gets to about $6