SNC , CRB (Jeffries), AGU , RDS.a and the B-Wave.

In EW terms the B-wave is normally the mid-wave in an A-B-C, correction, (by definition 3-waves). They tend to have an inordinate amount of symmetry and seem to ignore all fundamental information being almost oblivious to the rest of the world. There are 2 basic problems with the B-wave. First of all what may be 3 waves now can always develop further into 5 –waves and thereby stops being a B-wave. Next they can, and often do, rise above the origin of the preceding A wave which, intuitively, seems to make no sense. Yet it happens like clockwork and sometimes with a margin of about 30%. Despite this , it still is a B-wave. Here are 4 examples (there are literally dozens of them right now).

snc jan 2011 CRB jan 2011

and AGU.

AGU jan 2011 b-wave RD jan 2011 2

Typically the B-wave will retrace 50% to 62% in most cases, sometimes more and , if it gets that far, it frequently double tops, as in SNC above. The symmetry is nearly always present for reasons I do not understand, markets just love symmetry. In most cases that means that waves c and a in the B wave are equal (as vectors). This is pretty much the case with all four examples. In some cases the symmetry goes further and all 3 sub-divisions in the B-wave are vector equal, as, again, is the case with SNC. Anytime you observe this symmetry it pays to be very careful as once the B wave is complete, it is right back down often to below the starting point. If by some oddity the top should occur at a rather precise Fibonacci number (61.8) as for instance with the Canadian dollar in Oct. of 2001 or 2002 and now with SNC, I would get out altogether.

RDS.A , Royal Dutch again

rd jan 2011 RD jan 2011 2

There is no double Dutch here, just straight talk and it ain’t good. This thing is cooked. A clear 5 wave up over a generation , then a 50% tumble followed by a very clear a-b-c.  As always there could be alternatives but for now , one should be very careful.

RDS.A ,Royal Dutch Shell, XOM, Exxon

 RDS.A feb2 RDS Jan 26, 2010

The Canadian market seems to be able to go only one way, regardless of whatever news there might be that day, so perhaps it is worth looking elsewhere for some clues as to what lies ahead. Energy is a very large component of the Canadian market and Royal Dutch Shell is a very big integrated oil company. The two charts above are old ones that worked out fairly well. Below is today’s picture, long  and short term.

rds nov 2010 2 rds nov 2010

This stock must have read Elliotte’s work as it meticulously follows all the rules perfectly. Every leg of the30+ year bull trend channels  very nicely. Wave 3 is the extended wave. Now looking at the short term chart it is obvious at a glance that the drop from $90 to below $40 is about 61%, and, it is also right at the level of the 4th of previous degree. The drop may, or may not be a 5-wave move but what matters now is the rebound from the low, which, so far at least, is a very clear a-b-c . This may yet change, but until it does so, this is very definitely corrective; the implication is that the bear market from the 2008 highs may not be over yet! After all it seems counter-intuitive to assume that a 30 year uptrend would be corrected in just a year or two.There is some leeway left to the upside before the stock would start it’s down- trek again, perhaps to $75 or so, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

A quick glance at XOM, the other big one, confirms that this is very plausible.

XOM nov 2010

Again there is a consistent 30+ year uptrend. However in this case the drop ,that initially took a little more than a year, did NOT retrace the usual 61%, nor did it reach the territory of the 4th wave of previous degree ( about $50 t0 $30 ). furthermore the move back up from the first low, so far at least, looks itself like a little a-b-c to form a B in the larger down-trend. This scenario would allow for a further rise to about $78, then down for the second leg to about $40. If nothing else it is food for thought as unless someone figures out how to make water burn this scenario could really only work if there is some sort of economic down-turn that would , most likely hit all commodities. Not good for the TSE, but for the moment just a possibility worth keeping an eye on.