RDS.B

SLB, HAL and RDS.b

Hamilton

SLB jan 7 2015HAL jan 7 2015RDS.b jan 7 2015

Here we have Schlumberger, Halliburton and our favourite Royal Dutch. The first two have very distinct B waves whereas Royal Dutch appears to have a 5th wave. It does not matter much for the next big move, all three should move close to the bottom of the chart. This, by the way, also applies to CVX, XOM and a few others. So how is this going to happen? Here is Royal Dutch in greater detail;

rds.b jan7 2015 brds.b s jan7 2015

We anticipated large moves, both up and down but were surprised that they actually happened. As a result we are “stretching” our wave count so that it can reach our initial target at around $58 (see previous blogs), and then later drop much further. The recent move smell like the start of a triangle which suggests it is a 4th wave (it could also be a B-wave, but that does not fit as well but if it is then our original thought might still prove to be correct. This triangle would start one leg later and when finished the stock would climb to about $75). The thing to remember is that the drop is not over for any one of these stocks!

RDS.B Royal Dutch update

Hamilton

RDS.b dec 14 2014

RDS.B seems to support the notion that one more leg is needed. We are clearly in a 5th wave, 3 of 5 to be precise. The ideal target (ideal in EW terms) is around $59, that is where the triangle’s mouth would suggest that it goes as that is the lowest point. Time will tell.

RDS, Royal Dutch update

Hamilton

rds dec 11 2014 bRDS dec 11 2014 s

Royal Dutch is doing exactly as expected. See previous blogs. At the time, of course, it was not clear what would cause such a dramatic drop in such a blue-chip, widows and orphans type of stock, but now we know that it might be a 40% drop in oil itself in just a month or two. This stock came from $87 and traded below $66 which is just shy of 25%. It has not even finished it’s first leg down which should take it close to $60, the bottom of the triangle pattern. The RSI is not yet oversold so give it a little more time. Ultimately the target is much lower at <$40.

RDS.B update

Hamilton

rds.b oct 16 2014

This stock is now down about 20%. As you recall we had a target of $62.50 (apex of triangle, see previous blogs). Using the “gap in the middle” tool from our witchcraft  toolbox, we find a target of $61, so now we have a cluster.

The wave count would be a 1-2, 1-2 finishing at $82.73, then another 1-2 of wave 3. If correct the bounce today is a wave 4 of 3. So we have a lot more to go before this is complete.