HAL

HAL, Halliburton update

Hamilton

Hal july 9 2015

In our previous blog we expressed the view that this stock, having been unable to get back up to the $56 level of the 4th wave, might be ready to start the next leg down. On second thought we have to acknowledge that may not (yet) be the case. The a-b-c correction may just be one half of the correction that may get more complex. That scenario would fit better with the energy group. Perhaps Dick Cheney can use his many charming ways to support the stock a little longer.

The XEG in Toronto looks very similar, even has a higher resolution. Here are then & now charts;

xeg apr 28 2015XEG jul 9 2015

RDS.B , HAL updates

Hamilton

Then – December 14th , 2014 – and now charts, as usual.

RDS.b dec 14 2014rds.b march 13 2015

Roughly 3 months ago we anticipated a drop to about $59 and even anticipated the possibility of a triangle forming which would cause some big movements with little net result. We did get that but it remains unclear if there was a triangle. We are at the $59 level now and if the triangle was there it would most likely be a 4th wave triangle as opposed to a B-wave. This is easily accomplished by adjusting the count  to start with two 1-2’s. This then completes wave A down with a B and C to follow. This is tradable as the B could easily go as high as $75 and in the meantime you are earning a 6.1% dividend in the , now hard, US$ currency (on the ADR’s).

In the alternative it was a B-wave triangle and the second part of this correction has already started. That could take the stock down to $45 or even lower in a jiffy. For the moment we do not expect that. Using HAL, Halliburton (and SLB, not shown) it would seem that a time to pause is just around the corner;

HAL march 13 2015

Note, first of all, that HAL already dropped 36.47%, a lot more than Royal Dutch. Next it did not have the big swings recently and has essentially gone sideways supporting the notion that it was one single 5-wave leg down. The RSI will soon be oversold (it is already with Shell) which also suggest a period of pause for the next little while (defined just like with the Fed. as when I change my mind, but data based!).

Shell is one of the few true blue chips left. It is the go to stock for widows and orphans and has been that for a very long time. At 6% your money doubles in 12 years which is a lot better than what you get on a ten year note, with, arguable, a substantially lower risk.

SLB, HAL and RDS.b

Hamilton

SLB jan 7 2015HAL jan 7 2015RDS.b jan 7 2015

Here we have Schlumberger, Halliburton and our favourite Royal Dutch. The first two have very distinct B waves whereas Royal Dutch appears to have a 5th wave. It does not matter much for the next big move, all three should move close to the bottom of the chart. This, by the way, also applies to CVX, XOM and a few others. So how is this going to happen? Here is Royal Dutch in greater detail;

rds.b jan7 2015 brds.b s jan7 2015

We anticipated large moves, both up and down but were surprised that they actually happened. As a result we are “stretching” our wave count so that it can reach our initial target at around $58 (see previous blogs), and then later drop much further. The recent move smell like the start of a triangle which suggests it is a 4th wave (it could also be a B-wave, but that does not fit as well but if it is then our original thought might still prove to be correct. This triangle would start one leg later and when finished the stock would climb to about $75). The thing to remember is that the drop is not over for any one of these stocks!