TPX, Tempur-Pedic Intl. update

TPX dec 2012

Back on June 7, we opined that this stock was a buy for a rebound of $10 to $15. The low that day had been $21.05, a week or two later it bettered that by 35 cents by hitting $20.70 It opened the next day at $22.84 so for score keeping purposes we will assume that you bought it at that level. $12.5 higher (the midpoint or average of $10 to $15) is at $35.34, below the high of $36.11, good for a gain of 55% in 3 months.

I have no idea where it goes from here but I do suspect that we are about to complete a b-wave in a a-b-c correction that could close the entire gap by going to about $42. Not terrible sure about that so the step-aside recommendation fits best, for the moment.

TPX, Tempur-Pedic International

TPX june 2012

These guys make memory foam mattresses. High tech stuff supposedly invented by NASA. They announced ……Tempur-Pedic, which sells higher-priced foam-based and other specialty mattresses, now expects flat sales of about $1.43 billion in 2012, down from its previous forecast of $1.6 billion to $1.65 billion.  ……….

Sounds pretty innocent but look at the stock. The initial drop was entirely predictable to about $45, the rest was not and certainly not the speed at which this happened. Slightly more than 10% of the stock was held by shorts and it is doubtful that they covered their positions entirely. An abrupt bounce is a good possibility, either from here or a few dollars lower just in case we are in a 4th wave. This is the kind of trade you would prefer to do with “other-peoples-money”. But the stock is oversold according to the RSI so this might actually be a golden opportunity.